Sumit Kumar @Mycircle3

On the "mini" oil-glut: There's nothing "mini" about it, we are trading past Hormuz, Sept/Oct deliveries.. nothing is moving, and tanker people isn't making things easier either. China was a solution, now it's becoming a problem.

1/x How do we know if our (gyro)compass is still working correctly? If we are sailing under the coast or on a river, we can check this via leading lights, but on the open sea there is only water

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Netanyahu just proposed the most geopolitically explosive infrastructure project on earth. A pipeline from the Arabian Gulf straight to Israeli Mediterranean ports. Bypassing Hormuz. Bypassing Suez. Bypassing Iran entirely 🗺️ Here's the route: 🛢️ Source: Saudi/UAE terminals (Ras Tanura, Jubail) 🏜️ Transit: Across Saudi & Jordanian desert westward 🔀 Gateway: Eilat Israeli Red Sea port 🚢 Terminal: Ashkelon/Haifa Mediterranean loading for Europe The strategic logic: Land pipelines can't be mined. Land pipelines can't be targeted by fast boats. Land pipelines don't pay Suez Canal fees. Why now? Hormuz effectively dead ☠️ Ras Laffan offline 3-5 years 💥 Gulf monarchies furious at Iranian strikes on their infrastructure Quiet Israel-Gulf cooperation The obstacles are real: Arab public sentiment Pipelines are static targets (sabotage risk) Capital requirements, decades long commitment Saudi public alignment with Israel But here's what changed: Iran didn't just attack Israel. They attacked Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Oman. The enemy of my enemy just got a lot more persuasive. This is essentially a modern revival of the Tapline which ran from Saudi Arabia to Lebanon from 1950-1976. This time the destination is Israel. This time the Gulf states have been bombed by their own neighbour. The map is clean. The politics are messy. But the conversation is happening. 🌍🛢️ I break down exactly what this means for energy markets and geopolitics in my latest article. 📩 Link in my bio

While the Middle East burns, Russia is winning🇷🇺 This map tells you exactly how. Qatar offline, Hormuz dead and Ras Laffan destroyed. Every desperate LNG buyer just got one new address: Yamal Arctic Russia. And Russia has 2 delivery routes ready: 🔵 Northern Sea Route straight to Asia, bypasses everything 🟠 Southern Route through Suez to Europe No Hormuz exposure. No Iranian missiles. No force majeure. Just Arctic LNG flowing to exactly the countries that need it most: 🇯🇵 Japan , Hibiki Terminal, Kyushu, already receiving 🇨🇳 China , top priority buyer 🇪🇺 Europe , re-export terminals ready and waiting And Von der Leyen said "no Russian energy." That position gets harder to hold every day Qatar stays offline.♟️ Putin said Europe was "lacking brains." He then watched his main competitor's infrastructure get destroyed. And started shipping Arctic LNG to fill the gap. The energy war has a winner emerging in the frozen north. 🧊🛢️ Which countries are winning and losing this crisis? I break it down in full in my latest article, link here👇 themerchantsnews.substack.com/p/what-just-br… #oott #LNG #Russia

#Tankers $420K Pantanassa Failed! competing bids and market paralysis. splash247.com/vlcc-day-rates…

Petrochemicals Products Flow chart , very interesting

Strait of Hormuz comes to a halt. If this disruption persists, our kitchens may start feeling the heat. LPG shortages are slowly becoming a reality. Restaurants could face disruptions, train catering may get impacted, and air travel may get more expensive as fuel costs rise. Geopolitics rarely stays on the battlefield, it eventually lands on our dinner table. #StraitOfHormuz #EnergyCrisis #Oil #LPG

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Where does crude oil 🛢 in the gulf come from and where does it go ? Origin Destination Quantities

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🛢️ Comparison of 4 Major Oil Chokepoints: Hormuz, Malacca, Suez, Panama ⛽ 1. 🇮🇷 Strait of Hormuz (Persian Gulf exit): • Daily oil flow: ~20 million barrels/day • Global share: ~20% of petroleum / ~25-30% of seaborne crude • Key products: Crude, condensate, ~20% global LNG • Most vulnerable: 🇯🇵 Japan (70-80%), 🇰🇷 South Korea (65-70%), 🇹🇼 Taiwan (~60%), 🇮🇳 India (45-55%), 🇨🇳 China (40-50%) • Impact: Highest risk (current crisis focus) 2. 🇲🇾 Strait of Malacca (SE Asia transit): • Daily oil flow: ~23-24 million barrels/day • Global share: ~25-30% of seaborne oil trade (highest volume) • Key products: Middle East crude to Asia • Most vulnerable: 🇯🇵 Japan (80-90%), 🇰🇷 South Korea (80-90%), 🇹🇼 Taiwan (~80%), 🇨🇳 China (70-80%), 🇮🇳 India (moderate) • Impact: Severe for Northeast Asia 3. 🇪🇬 Suez Canal (Europe-Asia link): • Daily oil flow: ~8-9 million barrels/day • Global share: ~9-11% of seaborne oil trade • Key products: Northbound to Europe, some eastward flows • Most vulnerable: 🇪🇺 Europe (20-40%), 🇮🇳 India (low-moderate ~10-20%), 🇨🇳 China / 🇯🇵 Japan / 🇰🇷 South Korea (low) • Impact: Moderate (Cape bypass possible) 4. 🇵🇦 Panama Canal (Atlantic-Pacific link): • Daily oil flow: ~2-3 million barrels/day (mostly products/LPG/LNG) • Global share: ~2-5% of energy trade (least for crude) • Key products: US Gulf exports to Asia/Latin America • Most vulnerable: 🇺🇸 USA (high for exports), 🇯🇵 Japan / 🇰🇷 South Korea / 🇨🇳 China (moderate), 🇮🇳 India (low) • Impact: Lowest for global crude 📊 Quick Risk Ranking (2026 Crisis): 1. 🇮🇷 Hormuz → Highest 2. 🇲🇾 Malacca → High 3. 🇪🇬 Suez → Medium 4. 🇵🇦 Panama → Lowest

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