Open Model Project @OpenModelProj
Crowd wisdom * traditional election modeling = better forecasting? We'll see. Support independent, transparent polling & forecasting at https://t.co/2A5uspog8u. OpenModelProject.org Joined December 2020-
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They forgot to fix polling again?
"Polls are tightening in 2022 Generic Ballot Polling" -In 2020, Pollsters overstated Dem support by 4.2% -How many pollsters adjusted their samples to reflect reality? Answer: Quinnipiac and WSJ -The rest still Oversample Dems and Undersample Indies - Adjusted: GOP +5.6%
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Open Model Project retweeted
Here are my odds for who will win the 22 June NYC Mayor Dem primary: Adams63% Wiley 13% Garcia 11% Yang 9% Someone else 4% Here's a spreadsheet outlining my model, though I'm not sure if it really makes that much sense: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d… (Credit @iabvek for insight)
Open Model Project retweeted
"@PredictIt Live" goes, well, *live* at 1 pm today. @FlipPidot hosts @pjchougule @RobertMartinLT and @GaetenD with the world premiere of your exclusive source for real-time coverage of the stock market for politics. Watch/subscribe at: youtube.com/channel/UCOabU…
Open Model Project retweeted
Me talking about how strong Eric Adams is *before* he went on to outpoll Yang once
"@ericadamsfornyc is still very strong. He has a good constituency. He's playing more toward the conservative side of the Democratic Party, which is bigger than people typically appreciate."—@peterhurford starspangledgamblers.com/2021/05/08/per… @PredictIt @PolymarketHQ
Wiley claws back to 3rd as Stringer continues to unravel. Yang still (in fact never more so) the overwhelming favorite among traders. predictit.org/markets/detail…
Open Model Project retweeted
In the New York City Mayor's race, women’s groups are beginning to coalesce around one candidate: Maya Wiley, a former counsel to current Mayor Bill de Blasio. nytimes.com/2021/04/26/nyr…
They're catching on. Baby steps.
PSA: We’re sharing the data and code behind some of our articles and graphics. We hope you’ll use it to check our work and to create stories and visualizations of your own. 53eig.ht/3dUz54R
Open Model Project retweeted
📢New Podcast: The Right Side of Maybe Inspired by the saying popularized by @PTetlock, @dgardner, #BarbMellers, The Right Side of Maybe focuses on learning about and from elite forecasters. In the first episode, we talked to @PeterHurford! (1/4) globalguessing.com/peter-hurford-…
Open Model Project retweeted
Thread.
I don't really agree with @NateSilver538's glass-half full perspective on the 2020 polling miss fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-d…
Open Model Project retweeted
Cliff notes from a very interesting zoom
I don't really agree with @NateSilver538's glass-half full perspective on the 2020 polling miss fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-d…
New episode: "All Noise, No Signal" @FlipPidot @peterhurford and @HarryDCrane investigate @FiveThirtyEight's utterly failed attempt to distinguish good pollsters from bad. Cross-posted at our sister pod at @OldBullTV podbean.com/media/share/pb…
Open Model Project retweeted
8pm update with a few more filings in. The early leaders in # of contributors for March period: @mayawiley - 4,193 @Dianne4NYC - 3,852 @KGforNYC - 2,081 @ShaunDonovanNYC - 1,734 @scottmstringer - 1,597 @ericadamsfornyc - 662 @AndrewYang and @RayForMayor pending.
Open Model Project retweeted
NEW: The Money Race in the Democratic Mayoral Primary: March Filing Key for Matching Funds - by @samarkhurshid gothamgazette.com/city/10264-mon…
Open Model Project retweeted
New: At Televised Debate, Democratic Mayoral Candidates Outline Housing, Homelessness Plans - @GothamGazette gothamgazette.com/city/10258-tel…
Open Model Project retweeted
Inbox: record-setting fundraising by @AndrewYang, with more than 15,600 individual contributions:
Open Model Project retweeted
How did the myth that live caller polls are the most accurate ever get started? Even filtering only to polls *before* 2016, live caller polls are not any more accurate than online
Open Model Project retweeted
🚨 INTERNSHIP ALERT 🚨 Rethink Priorities (my org) is hiring research interns! This position is 3 months, 20-40 hours per week, paid $23-25/hr, fully remote, and comes with good management + feedback with a great team! Details here: rethinkpriorities.org/jobs/research-…
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