Tom Liptay @TLiptay
Director of Forecasting @FUTURESEARCHAI. Previously @Metaculus. GJP Superforecaster. Rhinebeck, NY Joined September 2016-
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@ByrneHobart I never read code anymore. I ask detailed probing questions, summaries, spot check outputs, etc. If there is a bug I copy-paste the error message. If I see something unexpected, I ask for an explanation. But, I'm working on solo research projects.
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Here are the forecasts: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d… Trades & portfolio: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Update for our polymarket play-money trader: April 24: $100,000 June 9: $117,448 Here is what happened since the last update...
@dwarkesh_sp Assigning accurate probabilities to world events is interesting because it is verifiable in the long-term, but not immediately verifiable.
Forecasts: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d… Trades/portfolio: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Just like polymarket, 19 of our 20 biggest positions are NO. Unlike polymarket we have 14.5% cash that we didn't deploy, since returns weren't attractive enough. Our positions are less Iran related than polymarket.
Updates for our play-money Kalshi trader: Feb 26: $100,000 May 27: $129, 237.59 Here is what happened this week...
Forecasts: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d… Trades/portfolio: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
19 of our top 20 positions are NO positions. Our forecaster thinks the market is over-pricing the situation in Iran changing in the near term. We'll have a bunch of May 31 resolutions next round.
An update for our play-money polymarket trader: April 24: $100,000 May 27: $92,987.74 Here is a summary of the action this week...
And, our ending portfolio summary. Forecasts: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d… Trades & porfolio: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
An update for our Kalshi play-money forecaster/trader: Feb 26: $100,000.00 May 18: $127,762.42 How we got here....
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