Plus EV Analytics @PlusEVAnalytics

Actuary. Gambler. Canadian. Small data specialist. King of korrelated parlays. Husband. Father. Bad golfer. Parrot parent. Speaker at Bet Bash '22 '24 '26. plusevanalytics.com Toronto, Ontario Joined January 2013

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Sarahh @Sarahhuniverse

20 hours ago

Decoy Effect, a cognitive bias where adding an inferior, "decoy" option to a choice set subtly manipulates you into choosing the marketer's preferred, usually more expensive, option. It skews your perception of value without you realizing it. © marketingminds

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Plus EV Analytics @PlusEVAnalytics

22 hours ago

@LAJoneser Something like that

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Plus EV Analytics @PlusEVAnalytics

2 days ago

It should be possible to get down reasonable but not massive amounts on highly liquid events at market no-vig consensus plus maybe 1% fee. None of sharp books, soft books, offshores, prediction markets are currently offering that.

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Plus EV Analytics @PlusEVAnalytics

a day ago

@Bayes_Baller Fair point and this might be my ignorance about where xG comes from and about soccer in general...but wouldn't xBA encode more information about the quality of a hit than xG does about the quality of a shot?

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Plus EV Analytics @PlusEVAnalytics

2 days ago

G = xG + player skill parameter + random noise

Alex Hardin @fearmyturtleDFS

2 days ago

we having fun yet?

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Plus EV Analytics @PlusEVAnalytics

a day ago

My model isn't any better than before but at least this is cheaper than a therapist

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Plus EV Analytics @PlusEVAnalytics

a day ago

@Gino_BetOpenly Sort of. You and novig are probably the closest thing that's currently available. Your fee structure is a little wonky and your insistence on not using MMs has both pros and cons to it. But you're in the right ballpark.

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Plus EV Analytics @PlusEVAnalytics

a day ago

Serious crimes against mathematics are being committed here. This does not prove that we are fortunate to be alive at the same time as Messi because someone like him won't come around again for thousands of years. This proves that, beyond a shadow of a doubt, Messi is better than an average player. Breaking news!

Lucas @lucas_hby

2 days ago

Messi se situe à 5,9 écarts-types (σ) au-dessus de la moyenne des attaquants des 5 grands championnats européens, en buts + passes décisives / 90 minutes. Explications En statistiques, la courbe normale dit que : 99,7% des individus sont dans les ±3σ À 5,9σ, la probabilité

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Plus EV Analytics @PlusEVAnalytics

a day ago

@peanut_bettor @Random501901 @Flupnolide @Novig The model I'm talking about breaks down if you attract too much sharp action. The medium sized limits are a feature not a bug.

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Plus EV Analytics @PlusEVAnalytics

2 days ago

@FrankFrijoles @Ias0801 Not yet. Soon.

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Plus EV Analytics @PlusEVAnalytics

2 days ago

I love a good rivalry game

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Plus EV Analytics @PlusEVAnalytics

2 days ago

@peanut_bettor @Flupnolide @Novig Yeah my point is that there are places where -110 (or even -115) is a fair price for the risk and places where it's not

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Plus EV Analytics @PlusEVAnalytics

2 days ago

@SnackhouseRacin Hell yeah

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Plus EV Analytics @PlusEVAnalytics

2 days ago

@JessicaDBrand Too soon

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Plus EV Analytics @PlusEVAnalytics

2 days ago

@Ias0801 I'd give them the market consensus CLOSING price to reduce the risk even further but people aren't ready for that conversation yet

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Plus EV Analytics @PlusEVAnalytics

2 days ago

@Ias0801 Main markets on big sports. Liquid enough that the adverse selection risk is close to zero.

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Peanut @peanut_bettor

2 days ago

@PlusEVAnalytics This is @Novig spreads on MLB sides today. Liquidity not near enough for a pro bettor ofc, but 99% of casuals can make a bet at <1% hold if they want too.

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Plus EV Analytics @PlusEVAnalytics

2 days ago

@vegasstarfish Just tell your insurance company you were fouled

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Plus EV Analytics @PlusEVAnalytics

3 days ago

Need to build autotune for @'s

Lexi Cothran @LexiCothran

4 days ago

Adding the DoorDash social team accidentally tagging T-Pain multiple times tonight, thinking they’re tagging New Zealand’s Tim Payne, to my list of favorite World Cup moments.

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Martin Shkreli @MartinShkreli

4 days ago

lead nowhere good: uh yeah like jail. this is basic fraud. now, jail is not THAT bad but it is case-specific: 1) do you like to read a lot? ✅ 2) do you like rap music and thug culture?✅ 3) are you in a gang or a member of a violent ethnicity not to be fked with? ✅

kristin eberth @kristinelizx

4 days ago

this is such bad juju, building a fake dupe site and getting creators to pretend to make bank trading on it growth shortcuts like this may feel clever in the moment but they lead nowhere good