None of it is a position from our side and the window can still move the picture. But judge promoted teams on the step up, not the season they just had. That is where most people, and most models, get it wrong. Full twenty team board, title down to the drop, lands when the window settles in mid August.
We ran the three promoted sides through our model on their raw Championship numbers. It spat out Coventry third in the Premier League, above Liverpool. Obvious nonsense, and exactly the trap almost everyone falls into at this time of year.
We launched the second side of the mode yesterday. The first thing you see in the post is the model’s paper book was down 13% this month while the index was flat. That is the free sample. Here’s why that’s the pitch:
None of it is a lock, and the window can still change things. But the lesson holds. Judge promoted teams on the step up, not the season they just had. That is where most people, and most models, get it wrong.
Every summer people rate a promoted team on its Championship numbers and talk themselves into it. We ran the three going up through our model on raw form. It had Coventry 3rd in the Premier League, above Liverpool. Obvious nonsense, and exactly the trap.
Next: the club season. 300 days of signal instead of 30 days of noise that’s where records get built. £35 lifetime stands until 31 July, then it’s gone and monthly opens in August.
World Cup’s settled. So are we. 22 real picks, every one logged before kick-off: 14 won, 8 lost. 64% strike rate at 1.78 average odds. Full board below
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