Reality-Based Analysis Group @RBAnalysisGroup

@jackprandelli Expect more and across the world as nations monetize their geography. We published a piece on this recently if you would like to learn more. rbaganalysis.substack.com/p/the-monetiza… x.com/RBAnalysisGrou…

Reality-Based Analysis Group @RBAnalysisGroup

2 weeks ago

All conflicts are temporary; almost all government bureaucracies are permanent. Whenever the dust settles in the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran, there will be no return to the status quo ante of free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. On 5 May 2026 the

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@ivan_8848 This is part of the new deterrence now that strategic weapons have failed to deter foreign adventurism. We published a piece on this yesterday which you may find interesting: rbaganalysis.substack.com/p/the-rules-ba… x.com/RBAnalysisGrou…

Reality-Based Analysis Group @RBAnalysisGroup

4 days ago

Traditional accounts of nuclear nonproliferation rely on two lies and one double standard; in reality, the states with the bomb are selling the path to it and preparing to use it themselves. For the past few years you have been asked to believe a narrative about nuclear

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@FurkanGozukara If you are interested in learning more about why Iran won, we published this analysis recently. x.com/RBAnalysisGrou…

Reality-Based Analysis Group @RBAnalysisGroup

3 weeks ago

Prior to the February 2026 joint Israeli-US attacks on Iran, both sides were confident their side would emerge victorious. In part, this was due to the starkly different concepts of victory held by each combatant. Israel and the United States, in their hubris, defined victory as

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@MarioNawfal Why do you describe this reality as a "problem"?

@MarioNawfal Chokepoints are being monetized all over the world. Welcome to the multipolar era. We published a piece on this recently if you wish to learn more: x.com/RBAnalysisGrou…

Reality-Based Analysis Group @RBAnalysisGroup

2 weeks ago

All conflicts are temporary; almost all government bureaucracies are permanent. Whenever the dust settles in the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran, there will be no return to the status quo ante of free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. On 5 May 2026 the

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Traditional accounts of nuclear nonproliferation rely on two lies and one double standard; in reality, the states with the bomb are selling the path to it and preparing to use it themselves. For the past few years you have been asked to believe a narrative about nuclear nonproliferation which is not true. The most common claim is that Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange for territorial security guarantees and after February 2022 the West is now obligated to defend “Ukrainian” territory. The second claim is that South Africa gave up its nuclear weapons and weapons program voluntarily in order to be welcomed back into collegial relations with the rest of the world. Neither story is true. Both are designed to reinforce the importance of the Western security umbrella, but from different angles. In early August 2026, the United States moved publicly in the same direction. Remorselessly coinciding with the 81st anniversary of the US atomic attack on civilian Hiroshima, Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon’s “Under Secretary of War for Policy,” revealed a new potential strategy for nuclear weapons, shifting the emphasis to shorter-range, regional use rather than large-scale strategic launches. While refraining from using the word “tactical,” the logic was explained that deterrence required an adversary to believe that nuclear weapons could and would be used, which is not the case with the larger “strategic” arsenal and doctrine. Basically, if a country’s use of nuclear weapons ensures the destruction of that country’s cities, an adversary knows that they will not be used for anything other than a truly existential threat. Thus, strategic nuclear weapons (those which destroy a city) are not a deterrent in regional conflicts, however serious. Lower-yield weapons (tactical weapons) which can obliterate an airport, a military base, or a neighborhood, on the other hand, are very easy for an adversary to envisage being used. As such, tactical nuclear weapons are a threat an enemy can believe in and thus wish to avoid. Hence, their possible use renews the nuclear deterrent. It also makes their usage much more likely, irrespective of the human cost or the Law of War. Thirty years ago, in 1996, the International Court of Justice found that the threat or use of nuclear weapons was contrary to the Law of War, with one possible exception on which it declined to rule: the case of extreme self-defense in which “the very survival of a State would be at stake.” Tactical nuclear weapons, normalized for regional conflict, obviate this legal finding and undo at a stroke the legal limitations put in place since the Second World War. And then there is Israel where the double standard ceases to be a matter of principle and becomes a matter of policy. Regarding Iranian possession of nuclear weapons, the United States hubristically declares “never!” whereas regarding Israeli possession, it squeaks “no comment.” Officials of the United States government routinely avoid comment or confirmation of Israel’s very tangible and well-known arsenal of approximately ninety nuclear warheads. Israel has never signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty, accepted inspections or safeguards, or even acknowledged the existence of a nuclear weapons program, let alone the weapons. Since the 1969 “understanding” reached between US President Nixon and Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir, the United States stopped commenting. It is the doctrinal shift, taking place simultaneously in both Russia and the United States, which is the new deterrence. It is the opening of the nuclear marketplace to Saudi Arabia which signals that nuclear programs are available for the right partners at the right price. It is the legal opening in which tactical low-yield nuclear weapons are unbounded and unrestricted. It is the exposure of the double standard and the shattering of the Western security umbrella revealed by the Iranian destruction of the US military bases throughout the Persian Gulf. This is the reality of nuclear proliferation at the dawn of the multipolar era. Expect more members of the nuclear club and soon, first in the Middle East and then swiftly elsewhere. Do not be surprised when normalized tactical nuclear weapons are used on the battlefield, perhaps as Karaganov’s warning, perhaps in lieu of US ground troops in Iran. And remember, the use of any weapon of war will be justified by those who use it or profit from it; tactical nuclear weapons will be no different. Read the full analysis at: rbaganalysis.substack.com/p/the-rules-ba… Reality-Based Analysis Group · rbag.at

@MarioNawfal Chris Martenson: an honest, straight shooter. Always refreshing, and bracing, to hear his take. Thank you for having him on.

@michele_geraci The multipolar era has finally opened options for developing economies without the coercion of the Cold War and Unipolar hegemony eras. We wrote a piece on this recently which you may find interesting: x.com/RBAnalysisGrou…

Reality-Based Analysis Group @RBAnalysisGroup

4 weeks ago

After 1991, the choice narrowed to one. Whether agrarian or industrial, large or small, each country received the same package depending on the bloc to which it adhered. That era has ended. Thus, the new opportunity: the ability to choose which economic model is best suited for

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@afshinrattansi If you wish to learn more about the new paths forward for developing countries now that we are in a multipolar era, you may enjoy a piece we recently published on it: x.com/RBAnalysisGrou…

Reality-Based Analysis Group @RBAnalysisGroup

4 weeks ago

After 1991, the choice narrowed to one. Whether agrarian or industrial, large or small, each country received the same package depending on the bloc to which it adhered. That era has ended. Thus, the new opportunity: the ability to choose which economic model is best suited for

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Iran understands this. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made famous the Russian term недоговороспособный (nedogovorosposobny), describing the United States as “not-agreement-capable,” meaning that it was not possible to even negotiate an agreement with the United States as there is no faith that it will be honored or that there was ever any intention for it to be honored. We wrote a piece about this you may find interesting: x.com/RBAnalysisGrou…

Reality-Based Analysis Group @RBAnalysisGroup

3 weeks ago

Prior to the February 2026 joint Israeli-US attacks on Iran, both sides were confident their side would emerge victorious. In part, this was due to the starkly different concepts of victory held by each combatant. Israel and the United States, in their hubris, defined victory as

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Iran understands this. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made famous the Russian term недоговороспособный (nedogovorosposobny), describing the United States as “not-agreement-capable,” meaning that it was not possible to even negotiate an agreement with the United States as there is no faith that it will be honored or that there was ever any intention for it to be honored. We wrote a piece about this you may find interesting: x.com/RBAnalysisGrou…

Reality-Based Analysis Group @RBAnalysisGroup

3 weeks ago

Prior to the February 2026 joint Israeli-US attacks on Iran, both sides were confident their side would emerge victorious. In part, this was due to the starkly different concepts of victory held by each combatant. Israel and the United States, in their hubris, defined victory as

1 15 20 10K 10

@the_piaz The atrocity in Minab was designed to shield anyone from accountability. It is a specific kind of evil. If you are interested in learning more, we published an analysis of the evil of using AI in targeting recently: x.com/RBAnalysisGrou…

Reality-Based Analysis Group @RBAnalysisGroup

a month ago

On 28 February 2026, three Tomahawk cruise missiles struck an elementary school in Minab, southern Iran. At least 168 civilians were killed, the overwhelming majority of them children, over one hundred under the age of twelve. The school was not a secret. It had been open for

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@MarioNawfal Iran will not relinquish control of the Strait. We published on this earlier if it is helpful: x.com/RBAnalysisGrou…

Reality-Based Analysis Group @RBAnalysisGroup

3 weeks ago

Prior to the February 2026 joint Israeli-US attacks on Iran, both sides were confident their side would emerge victorious. In part, this was due to the starkly different concepts of victory held by each combatant. Israel and the United States, in their hubris, defined victory as

1 15 20 10K 10

@nomajor_7 The atrocity in Minab was designed to shield anyone from accountability. It is a specific kind of evil. If you are interested in learning more, we published an analysis of the evil of using AI in targeting recently: x.com/RBAnalysisGrou…

Reality-Based Analysis Group @RBAnalysisGroup

a month ago

On 28 February 2026, three Tomahawk cruise missiles struck an elementary school in Minab, southern Iran. At least 168 civilians were killed, the overwhelming majority of them children, over one hundred under the age of twelve. The school was not a secret. It had been open for

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@RWApodcast @ripplebrain So many of the Ukrainian plans have this problem, they are based on a highly unlikely initial condition. It's like having a fantastic business plan with step one being winning the lottery.

@MarioNawfal x.com/RBAnalysisGrou…

Reality-Based Analysis Group @RBAnalysisGroup

3 weeks ago

Prior to the February 2026 joint Israeli-US attacks on Iran, both sides were confident their side would emerge victorious. In part, this was due to the starkly different concepts of victory held by each combatant. Israel and the United States, in their hubris, defined victory as

1 15 20 10K 10

@MarioNawfal If you wish to understand Iranian victory a bit more, from Iran's perspective, we published a piece on it earlier this week. rbaganalysis.substack.com/p/understandin…

@stratheia The machine did not make a mistake in Minab, people did. People built and used a system to ensure that no one would stand accountable when “mistakes were made” and when 168 innocents were killed, no one did. x.com/RBAnalysisGrou…

Reality-Based Analysis Group @RBAnalysisGroup

a month ago

On 28 February 2026, three Tomahawk cruise missiles struck an elementary school in Minab, southern Iran. At least 168 civilians were killed, the overwhelming majority of them children, over one hundred under the age of twelve. The school was not a secret. It had been open for

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@Nat_Dowzicky @reason @TheFP "Dropped the ball" is one way to put it; another way is "attempted and failed to seize control of the narrative to assuage people into false comfort in order to continue their compliance with the surveillance and security state." After all, that's their primary objective.

@alon_mizrahi All too true. In the multipolar world, there are other options, but not if your entire government has been installed by the west. If you are interested in the options Syria could have chosen, this may be of interest: rbaganalysis.substack.com/p/economic-fre…