Telemachus @TelemachusModel

Living the dream Joined January 2021

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Telemachus @TelemachusModel

3 months ago

Can confirm. BUSR.ag will steal your money if you win.

BUSR.ag is a stiff book. A player shared a story where he won 100k with parlays. BUSR has a "license to steal" rule where if they think you're sharp (whether you are or not) they can seize your winnings. Buyer beware.

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Telemachus @TelemachusModel

4 months ago

@professor042 @EvanMiya He used to post his record publicly, right? All of a sudden I don't see it anymore...

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Telemachus @TelemachusModel

a year ago

Things that also take 1 minute to google: - 1 to 5 year olds received SS benefits if their parents are disabled or deceased. - Clerical errors and computer systems issues are real and likely explain meaningful portions of the other two categories. - DOGE repeatedly makes false claims or claims they later retract. One example: nytimes.com/2025/02/25/ups… More importantly: literally no one is against fraud or government waste. What is DOGE trying to accomplish by embellishing and lying about things?

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Telemachus @TelemachusModel

a year ago

@BigBuckHunterrr @ShipTheJustice @RufusPeabody @mm_____7634 @CirclesOffHQ I was completely in the dark until after posting that. I'm filled in now and there will be no more pot stirring.

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Telemachus @TelemachusModel

a year ago

@reggie_rowdy @robpizzola It's similar but not nearly as dramatic

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Telemachus @TelemachusModel

a year ago

@robpizzola recently mentioned pros were struggling to win at cbb this year. Let's take a look at market efficiency for Totals. Here's the avg absolute mean error for both the opener (top) and close (bottom) by year. If my numbers are right*, the market opener this year is *significantly* more accurate than the close from all recent years. 👀 * These numbers exclude some games where I don't generate predictions * Someone double-check my numbers, please.

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Telemachus @TelemachusModel

a year ago

@MikeR_RAS Completely agree that the last few years should've been beneficial for those who do mostly subjective stuff.

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Telemachus @TelemachusModel

a year ago

@JonFendler Certainly depends on what % edge you think you have and if your projections are biased in any way, but I'd say 1000 minimum and likely more than that.

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Telemachus @TelemachusModel

a year ago

@d_feustel @0mamawembanyama The close is the same

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Telemachus @TelemachusModel

a year ago

@d_feustel @0mamawembanyama x.com/TelemachusMode…

Telemachus @TelemachusModel

a year ago

@Ias0801 @robpizzola It's a simple median of openers from select books. Some of the increased efficiency could be explained by the market being more established before certain books open a number. But that's not enough to explain why this year's open is more efficient than last year's close.

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Telemachus @TelemachusModel

a year ago

@CorneredMarket @robpizzola Haven't tested but my guess is yes.

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Telemachus @TelemachusModel

a year ago

@WazBettorIQ @robpizzola There's enough games each season that outliers shouldn't be doing too much work. AAME isn't perfect but I doubt it's misleading here. Feel free to suggest a better method though.

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Telemachus @TelemachusModel

a year ago

@JonFendler Sample size is way too small to draw any conclusions there, fwiw.

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Telemachus @TelemachusModel

a year ago

1. The market did a great job of getting the scoring environment right this year. The overall avg mean error is closer to 0 than most other years. 2. There have been a lot of shocks to the system in recent years (2019: 3 pt line change, 2020/21: covid, 2022: portal + charge rule change part1, 2023: portal + charge rule change part 2, 2019-2023: drastic increase in overall off efficiency). This year was relatively quiet as far as shocks go. 3. Noise.

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Telemachus @TelemachusModel

a year ago

@calvinridley73 @rgarcia57 @Ias0801 @robpizzola 1. Agree 2. Maybe? 3. Disagree. The close this year still improved dramatically over the open. And, I think most books use the close from previous games as input to future openers. 4. Strong agree.

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Telemachus @TelemachusModel

a year ago

This assumes that there's no other player in the space willing to bet into the places they have biases. Over the past 2 years, if they (or anyone else) moved the market in a way we disagreed with, we happily bet into it. Together we should've made the market more efficient. I have to image the opposite is true too. Now there are fewer people willing to bet into the places where I have biases. Just playing devil's advocate here, FWIW. I'm not saying you're definitely wrong.

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Telemachus @TelemachusModel

a year ago

@calvinridley73 x.com/TelemachusMode…

Telemachus @TelemachusModel

a year ago

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Telemachus @TelemachusModel

a year ago

Give me your quibbles! There's a reason why I say "theoretically". One explanation for increased efficiency this year could be that they were spending a bunch of money making the market less efficient (either intentional or unintentional). Given what I know about their performance in previous years and their betting pattern, I don't think that is the case but I could be wrong.