Tim Duy @TimDuy
Father, Chief U.S. Economist, @sghmacro, former @uoregon economist, Tim Duy's Fed Watch, former columnist for @bopinion sghmacro.com Eugene, OR Joined September 2011-
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What's amazing is everyone was so sure that Warsh would deliver the opposite because the Fed's independence was gone.
These people just turn my tweets into articles don’t they.
Does socialists winning elections count as embedded inflation expectations?
JUST IN: Five-term incumbent Democrat Adriano Espaillat has been defeated by Mamdani-endorsed Socialist Darializa Ávila Chevalier.
What happened in NYC tonight represents a larger trend among Dems... 1. Dem Socialists (+17 pt net fav) are more popular than Dems in Congress (+4 pt net fav) with Dems. 2. Socialism's popularity with Dems is way up in the last 15 years & is far more popular than capitalism.
A running theme of this feed has been that the callousness and gaudy vulgarity of the Trump administration, along with the fecklessness of the Fed, will provoke a socialist backlash that reshapes the country over the next decade. I am more convinced of that now than ever.
“Can capitalism survive? No. I do not think it can” - Joseph Schumpeter
If housing comes back we’ll get even more inflation
Housing market has been a dog and that has hurt freight demand. If housing comes back, it will cause a significant surge in freight volumes, which will cause an even bigger surge in rates
A useful antidote to the hindsight bias that plagues us all—and a reminder that the sell side’s obligatory annual forecasting exercise is best treated as an excuse for demonstrating your sense of humour.
⚠️ Reminder that the macro consensus at the start of the year rarely plays out. Consensus at the start of 2026 was for long RoW cyclicality and a dovish Fed (underweight trades linked to Tighter FCIs). Both have materially unwound, with markets now looking for tighter FCIs $USD
In the old USSR, people could be arrested for photographing bridges, tunnels, etc. A repressive and paranoid regime assumed the photographers must be spies and saboteurs. Americans laughed at such petty tyranny. Nothing like that could happen in their free country! Until now.
Core inflation was accelerating before the Iran conflict. The data showing this became clear after March, which made it look as if it was oil related but the Fall low in core PCE was 2.8% in October. It rose to 3.3% by March.
For the hawks on the FOMC, the rationale for rate hikes is not about oil. There were 75bps worth of insurance cuts put in place last year to support the labor market. With inflation still above target and labor markets reviving, the insurance is no longer required.
People are going to revolt soon if we don’t start prioritizing inflation over stock prices in this country
@DannyMapes @rev_cap @NickTimiraos @colbyLsmith Rick Perlstein's "Invisible Bridge" weaves in the inflation story nicely.
This is also a revolt against persistently high inflation.
I’ve been telling y’all there’s a tax revolt brewing *among Democrats.* Nothing called a “Library Tax” has ever failed to get 50% of the vote in California. In El Cerrito, a city of retired Cal professors where 67% of the 25+ population has a college degree, it failed 70-30.
At least they know how to keep the pool blue.
Listed at $8.9mm just over a year ago, this estate in the Highlands at Broken Top in Bend Oregon is down to $5.95mm, or a $3mm drop. Having paid $4.2mm in 2018 it seems they have room to run, but the fishing for suckers era is about dead and I don't think their measly $49k price
The Fed either has responsibility over inflation or all this talk about independence is pointless.
@TimDuy @NickTimiraos @colbyLsmith Trump has the lowest net approval rating on inflation of any president in history and we are acting like the Fed isn’t part of that It’s all very surreal given we lived through the 70s already I wonder if it felt like this the first time it happened with burns/nixon
I have been saying this exact same thing for the past 3 years If you are young and early in your career, remote work is the worst thing you can sign up for Avoid it at all costs
Published an op ed in @nytimes: remote work hurts mental health. Let me explain why 🧵⤵️
It's very difficult to convey in English, but there's a French phrase, "ironie d'histoire", which would indicate why it's funny that this deal was signed at Versailles.
Le Président Trump a signé ce soir à Versailles l’accord entre l’Iran et les États-Unis. Cet accord ouvre la voie à une paix durable et permet la réouverture du détroit d’Ormuz. C’est un pas important dans la bonne direction pour nos compatriotes
So if you back to the office you can start smoking.
Medical research suggests that social isolation has health impacts similar to 15 cigarettes a day. Little wonder then that remote work leads to worse mental health. Our paper in Science shows that it also increases use of mental healthcare services and mental health
lol, yeah a box of Costco trail mix will fix everything.
JUST IN: Meta’s CTO says morale is near “the worst it’s ever been” — leadership will offer increased snack budgets to lift spirits.
The rest of someone short the short end of the curve today.
Wow. Completely agree of course
"We are dealing with an economy whose currency is undervalued by between 25 & 30 %. This is such a massive competitive disadvantage that we must address it & we have agreed to do so". It's a big step Merz put 🇨🇳currency undervaluation front and center at G7 meeting. Time to act.
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