Quinn Thompson @qthomp
CIO @Lekker_Cap | Podcast @ForwardGuidance lekkercapital.com Joined December 2018-
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The Fed just repeated the same ill-timed hawkish pivot for the third year in a row. Hawkish reaction to tariffs in 2025 - reversed to cuts. Late hawkishness in summer 2024 - reversed to cuts. Now they're doing it again into an energy shock that's already rolling off.
New from Lekker Insights: The Case for Peak Hawkishness. We've been stalking the STIR complex for months and now believe there is a swing opportunity ahead. This piece aggregates the thesis and trade structure in one place.
As the loss of trust and problems plaguing governments around the world increase, so will the use of manipulation and interventionist tactics. The oil market is the latest example of this and carries major implications across asset classes.
It may only last 60 days (I doubt it; likely would become permanent), but the US Treasury’s waiver is effectively rolling back 40-year plus of American oil sanctions against Iran. Even US refiners are allowed to import Iranian oil and pay for it in greenback!!!
“Obama sent Iran pallets of cash” “We have destroyed Iran’s nuclear” “There will be no payments” “Iran’s military has been decimated” Trump’s two recent major policy blunders (tariff rollout and Iran War) have both 1) disproportionately hurt lower/middle income Americans and 2) given the world the playbook how to beat the US in a conflict (cause market volatility).
An Iranian official has spoken to Reuters regarding the potential interim deal with the US, indicating some of what has been agreed to, including: -Fully opening the Strait of Hormuz immediately -U.S. to lift naval blockade within 30 days -No new sanctions imposed while
“It’s easy to be hawkish when stocks are at all-time highs and everything’s rosy.” @qthomp explains why the real test for the Fed comes only after markets break. “That’s when you really decide if you care about inflation or not.”
This is the first week where @Strategy's actions lend a hint that they understand investor concerns and are willing to address them. This is exactly what we've been advocating for - use $MSTR issuance to raise cash to bolster the balance sheet. There's still a ways to go that should keep pressure on $MSTR, but these actions will benefit not only the rest of the capital structure above the common, but also BTC itself.
Strategy has increased its USD Reserve by $300 million to $1.4 billion and plans to continue replenishing it to support the credit quality of its Digital Credit securities. We also acquired 520 BTC for $35 million, increasing our $BTC Reserve to ₿847,363. $MSTR $STRC.
Only 1 of 19 Fed members who submitted rate path policy expectations sees a more hawkish path than what is currently priced in. We believe there are a number of opportunities across the SOFR curve.
This is brilliant corporate finance. Use your newly printed, low float, retail inflated currency to acquire real businesses ahead of the lockup expiring. Probably the most creative/accretive way to sell as much equity as possible into IPO pump. I wonder what acquisition is next.
BREAKING: SpaceX has agreed to acquire Cursor, the world's fastest growing software startup, for $60 billion in an all stock deal. Cursor has over 1 million paying customers, more than $2 billion in annualized revenue, and is projected to hit $6 billion by end of 2026. At $60
ICYMI NEW POD We Cover: 🔸 End of forward guidance 🔸 Why hikes won't happen 🔸 AI vs the new Fed 🔸 $MSTR’s stress test & more! @Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp @fejau_inc 00:00 Intro 01:13 Forward Guidance Is Dead 08:28 Rate Volatility Returns 13:08 Why Hikes Won’t Happen 18:33 Liquidity Gets Tight 26:15 The AI Buildout Meets The Fed 35:55 The Summer Market Setup 42:39 MicroStrategy's Market Test 46:18 Bitcoin’s AI Opportunity Cost 53:29 Crypto Needs To Adapt 01:00:46 Gold Sentiment Hits Extremes
Forward guidance is dead, long live forward guidance. 🧵Breakdown of our latest roundup with @qthomp @Tyler_Neville_ @fejau_inc
Central bankers almost never hike into an energy shock, and when they do it doesn't end well. The ECB has multiple examples of oil price driven rate hikes that were reversed in less than a year - each time marking policy errors.
New Scouting the Tape is out. It's no coincidence to us that the Iran deal was timed just before Warsh's first FOMC. This issue dives deeper into the Fed's hawkish pivot and the opportunities we see around it.
@fat_mac2 @fejau_inc 😂 x.com/qthomp/status/…
Friends of @ForwardGuidance, we have a fun ask to make. We thought there'd be no better way to solve the debate of who gets the worst haircuts than to get buzz cuts for a good cause. We want to use our platform to raise money for children and families in need and and if we hit
NEW POD: A New Era Is Beginning In Markets We Cover: 🔸 End of forward guidance 🔸 Why hikes won't happen 🔸 AI vs the Fed 🔸 $MSTR’s stress test & more! @Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp @fejau_inc Links Below ↓
New lows across the entire @Strategy structure $STRC $STRD $STRK. When a company's capital stack goes into distress, time is rarely on your side. The sooner they rectify the situation, the sooner they stop the bleeding. Raise the cash and de-lever or do it at lower prices.
The carnage across the Strategy capital structure continues. It's not just $STRC that is falling despite the bounce in BTC, it's everything. This will only end when they decide to fortify their balance sheet and shore up liquidity - until then it will continue bleeding.
@0xMogluc Not something I agree with. I think real rates are topping out here. Hyperscaler share price underperformance lays question to the productive uses part of that statement.
Gold is starting to look attractive. SOFR futures bottoming + USDJPY topping + real rates peaking = the bull case for gold in one sentence. Positioning supports it too with capitulatory ETF outflows, declining futures open interest, and option skew reaching extreme put-heavy demand. Numerous contrarian buy signals.
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