Geoff Bernstein @VCnerd_

VC nerd @IndicatorVC Boston, MA Joined August 2011

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Geoff Bernstein @VCnerd_

2 months ago

@villi It’s a big problem

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Geoff Bernstein @VCnerd_

2 months ago

@ankurnagpal Awesome! Assume these are net?

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Geoff Bernstein @VCnerd_

3 months ago

@QCompounding Glaringly missing: @DatabentoHQ

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@JoinOdin My mantra is “nothing tests conviction like career risk.” Concentration by design for some, diversification for others. Lean into your own psychological strengths. Not all brains/guts are created equal.

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Geoff Bernstein @VCnerd_

3 months ago

@KingTunde_SZN 56, upside down

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Geoff Bernstein @VCnerd_

3 months ago

@Sahrish1278 7581

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Geoff Bernstein @VCnerd_

3 months ago

@davidycli Let’s chill on AI funds “returning 5-10x net”. There will be some, as there always are, but AI funds are new. There’s no broad sample set of realized funds. I’ll bet the median is worse than ever.

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Geoff Bernstein @VCnerd_

3 months ago

@scottastevenson Community-adjusted CARR

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Geoff Bernstein @VCnerd_

3 months ago

@IndicatorVC cc: @endowment_eddie @pavelprata @credistick @Beezer232 @johnfelix123 @HarryStebbings @PeterJ_Walker @Samirkaji

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Geoff Bernstein @VCnerd_

3 months ago

Good debate happening right now about VC portfolio construction, but no receipts. @IndicatorVC decided to share all the details of a ~4x NET/>1x DPI 2018 fund (gross is meaningless), and how we view the strategy as AUM scales. Feedback welcome! papermark.com/view/cmo296zg5…

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Geoff Bernstein @VCnerd_

3 months ago

@johnfelix123 @Stepstone Shoutout to @cartainc and @PeterJ_Walker for the assist on the data!

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Geoff Bernstein @VCnerd_

3 months ago

@johnfelix123 great thread! We @indicator published the full construction of our '18 fund with actual numbers. @stepstone has some great data they've shared in aggregate and we hope this provides a kernel of context. Feedback welcome! papermark.com/view/cmo296zg5…

John Felix @johnfelix123

3 months ago

1/ The VC world loves a good binary debate. “Concentrated funds outperform.” “Diversification is better for capturing the power law.” Both sides argue like it’s obvious. Both sides are missing the point. Here's the nuance most people ignore 👇

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Geoff Bernstein @VCnerd_

3 months ago

@pavelprata 🎯

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Geoff Bernstein @VCnerd_

4 months ago

@Trace_Cohen @Struhl @PeterJ_Walker This is super cool! But it's also interesting how big the dispersion is between data sources. Carta is the best, especially for <$150M funds, as it's the closest to the ground truth data. Still, a 15% swing is material! See data here. x.com/nerstein/statu…

Geoff Bernstein @VCnerd_

4 months ago

@PeterJ_Walker THE FOLLOWING SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS A SOLICITATION TO INVEST IN ANY FUND OF SECURITY. Here is the real data as of 12/31/25. This shows our 2018 fund at a 4.09x TVPI, 1.05x DPI, and 29% IRR.

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Geoff Bernstein @VCnerd_

4 months ago

@PeterJ_Walker The same goes for net DPI and net IRR DPI delta was small, as the net number was 1.04x, with the Carta (gross) number being 1.05x. The difference is the small realized carry (it takes a long time to get your carry check guys!)