@invest091@duke_dow@DimitryNakhla Thanks Michael, quality industrials gets me very intrigued and I have decided to open a small position. In a couple of years this will probably do fine. Good risk reward, same old story when companies do spin offs!
@DimitryNakhla What’s the bear case here? $HONA seems too cheap here at 205. With the barriers to entry, stable defense exposure, high margins and returns on invested capital. I must miss something or is it just people throwing away spinoff shares.
Would love a comment from @invest091 as well.
@TimelessCpnd I really like the physical moat companies! What revenue growth do you expect?
And what will drive the growth, can they raise prices above inflation?
Some highlights from Jay Adair's first call as returning CEO to Copart $CPRT (with some of my comments attached):
- He is not a transitional CEO, he expects to be at the company for 10+ years
- Believes current industry headwinds are cyclical and that insurance premium increases are already normalizing. My comment: bodes well considering it has created "easy" comps
- Copart will focus on international expansion, not only growing the existing base but moving into other countries. They can now be more aggressive after "figuring out" international insurance industries (like in Germany)
- There will be a focus on M&A: "We will be doing M&A obviously." Imho this is good from a growth standpoint and the fact that the $4.2B in cash likely gets reinvested. He even said that they could lever up to acquire. I do understand that this might make the market a bit nervous (i.e., is the organic growth story over?)
- He believes the narrative re. IAA and how it now competes face 2 face with Copart is flawed: "I think they've espoused some rhetoric that's out there in the marketplace. I haven't seen where their products have dramatically changed."
- He did admit that there's been share loss with one customer but that it's not representative of the remaining customer relationships and that they'll likely win share back over time: "There is a unit loss. There was an account that was lost in some ways, and in some ways, Copart chose not to do business. I think Copart has the ability to win that business back. I suspect over time, you'll see us winning business."
- Believes that the changes that are going to be made won't take years but will take several quarters
- There will be Capex leverage: "The last 10 years was just half a billion a year in buying land and developing those locations. That's definitely going to slow down." This is more important than it looks because if growth accelerates on the face on Capex leverage, FCF will most likely go through the roof (Copart is currently trading at an EV/FCF yield of 6%)
- On SG&A leverage: "I think we can leverage it, but I'm not going to make a statement like that on a call which stops me from making a good LT decision to invest in the company."
@DrewCohenMoney I really liked the $FND! Never would have known hardwood flooring is interesting to listen to for an hour! Keep up the great work!
I hope to see a $LVMH or $ICE deepdive soon
Investing is a second-level thinking domain.
First-level thinking is where you ask, "Is this a good asset?"
More than 90% of all of the content, research and focus is designated on this level of thinking. There are 100s of blogs and podcasts centred on answering that question with deep dives and 10,000-word research reports.
If the game was all about buying great assets, then research analysts would be the richest people on Wall Street. However, they are merely compensated by a salary.
Alpha, excess return or outsized equity gain is generated by asking the second-level thinking question: "What is everyone else assuming about this asset?"
Additional or follow-up 2nd-level questions might be:
• What is the consensus view?
• What is already priced in?
• What is the level of expectations embedded in the price?
• Who is on the other side of the trade?
Perhaps George Soros summed it up the best when he said, "Money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected."
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