VolMachine @VolMachine
Leverage is a volatility machine (paraphrasing Pettis). HY/IG/Loans/Distressed. No crying in the casino. Joined February 2024-
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Especially in light of this
Holy shit. Ever wonder how SPX did after ▪ A Friday where both SPX and QQQ ▪ Gapped down and never even touched Thursday's low ▪ Plus, VIX was above 15.00 How bout them 20d draw downs?
This is a problem
1. در ساعات گذشته 4 فروند کشتی متخلف با حمایت ارتش تروریست امریکا قصد عبور از تنگه هرمز داشتند که طی یک عملیات ترکیبی موشکی و پهپادی هر 4 کشتی در جای خود متوقف شدند.
I am SO taking Tylenol when I get pregnant
Bro makes bird calls so accurate it barely sounds human. Actually insane
I mean. How is this not tacky as fuck.
As America commemorates 250 years of independence, the @usmint will begin striking this new $1 gold coin to honor the enduring legacy of liberty and a lasting symbol of patriotism. Featuring President Trump, it celebrates the strength of American values, and the promise of a
There has never been a man who describes himself as “high t” who has a penis longer than 4 inches. This is science. Kinsey looked into this.
$300 then $200. $HCA. Goodnight sweet prince.
As is obvious, EV multiple compression will arrive well ahead of fatal EBITDA compression, and this means that we will at least one, likely two cycles of LMEs before Chapter cycle arrives.
I think BofA strategists are very right that the next set of defaults would effectively be about secular EBITDA compression.
Headlines from a single day.
Average experience in my short book since the ceasefire
Oil on water in the Persian Gulf has returned to pre-war levels following the escape of long-stranded tankers over the past few week Fantastic new for long-stranded tanker crews, less good news for the sustained pace of Hormuz exit flows, which have rolled over data via @Kpler
Tell me why this credit isn’t a short. Dumb motherfuckers.
“While only about 1,200 of the 13,500 companies in pri-vate-equity portfolios are in the software sector, according to Pitch-Book, they tied up an outsize portion firms' of capital after many were purchased at lofty valuations”
Trump: "One of the things I talked to [Putin] about was, 'Where would you want to meet?' And he said, 'Ideally in Moscow.' I said, 'You're not going to meet in Moscow.'…Would you go to Moscow?" Zelensky: "It's difficult. There are a lot of Ukrainian drones there."
My favorite stat about the history of NYC is the island of Manhattan’s peak population was 2.1M people in 1910 compared to 1.6M today
The red card guy didn't even score. We paid off Fifa for nothin', T.
*TRUMP SAYS SHORT SELLERS ARE GETTING WIPED OUT
IS THE ECONOMIST ALWAYS WRONG? Scandalously, in some circles @TheEconomist has a reputation as a contrarian indicator. This week we fessed up to getting a big call on oil prices from April wrong. Obviously our goal is not perfectly-hedged (and perfectly boring) predictive accuracy: often it is to stimulate, provoke, and challenge. But I did want to test that wider allegation, so I ran a series of LLM scorers across our full leader database since 2000 (7,000 leaders in all.) You can see the results in the chart below: each dot is one of the 1,400 leaders where we identified concrete and falsifiable predictions that were central to the argument. Higher = more accurate, further to the right = more contrarian. We do well, unsurprisingly, when aligned with conventional wisdom. We often do worse when truly out on a limb. But actually, on average, we are a bit likelier to be right than wrong on our somewhat-out-of-consensus calls. All round, a respectable performance. And as @ecurrnomics points out an accompanying leader, there is no shame at all in being beaten by the market: as good free-marketers we believe deeply in the aggregated wisdom of prices. Take a look at my piece here, which includes a canter through our best and worst calls of the last quarter-century: economist.com/interactive/fi…
The market is always right. It is our reading of conditions/chart price action is wrong. And that is usually due to a bias. If our starting point is: the market is wrong, I know that it will adjust to what I am thinking, this creates a fixed opinion which becomes really difficult to change and eventually result in large losses.
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18K Followers 86 Following Senior Oil Market Analyst for Sparta Commodities. Seasoned oil professional, with roles spanning Refining, Trading & Strategy in Shell. Views are my own.
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