BiotechWatcher @WatcherBiotech

Good news for $TRVI IPF-Cough is the main driver with RCC now an even more interesting second opportunity $XBI

Adam Feuerstein ✡️ @adamfeuerstein

2 weeks ago

$GSK shelving development of camlipixant on mixed/disappointing results from two Ph3 studies. This is the drug GSK acquired for $2B rom Bellus Health in 2023. gsk.com/en-gb/media/pr…

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$TVTX Just saw the Filspari monthlies (Symphony data). The FSGS launch certainly seems to be steepening the curve. And remember that each FSGS script is worth ~2x an IgAN script in revenue/patient..... $XBI

$RZLT With today's news on $QURE (and $REPL and others), I'd say regulatory flexibility with respect to rare disease is clearly back Post the strong THI data and the nuances surrounding the failed CHI study, I think the odds of Rezolute being allowed to file for CHI (accelerated approval) just went up. Again, I don't think even THI is in the stock at these prices.... $XBI

$RZLT The market (market cap <$400M) still doesn't realize that the THI study is basically already done and approvable. That alone gets you a return from here. THI approval could put pressure on the FDA regarding CHI (high unmet need population). Can the FDA give them accelerated approval for CHI if they do a small confirmatory study? $NKTR Definitely finding support (covering?) in recent days. Certainly a gap to fill if LLY legal outcome (approaching!) is favorable. $TVTX Trading like it's going to be taken out, which obviously wouldn't be crazy, especially with the new IP. The FSGS launch is going to wow the market, IMO. $LBRX <$1B market cap with a neuropsych drug that is basically a drug that we know already works (approved in Europe). Phase III Schizophrenia data next year, which you can argue is highly derisked. Also doing Bipolar and MDD. Just need to hold and be patient as investors look to add exposure over the next 12 months. $ITCI was eventually acquired for $14.6B. This one is obviously much earlier, but following the same playbook. $TRVI Next up will be data from $GSK for its Phase III in RCC (from $BLU takeout). I see positives in either outcome for TRVI, as a fail means one less competitor and success means that GSK can help build a commercial market with TRVI coming in a few years with a different/orthogonal approach. Should GSK's launch go well, it can only add to the strategic value of TRVI's RCC program. Bigger picture, IPF-cough (the lead indication) is still the program that matters most for TRVI IMO $XBI

@drsprs @Biohazard3737 And pretty unappealing skew into the unveiling of the trial design. No titration is overwhelming base case now - but who knows what FDA eventually concludes. Basically just trusting management right now. $EWTX

$RZLT happy there's at least one other nut job out there! $XBI

$RZLT ... and... back to where it was 😂. Crazy tape. At least this one is now objectively mispriced based on this THI data. Just a matter of time before folks figure it out IMO. $XBI

$RZLT back from the dead! THI success should be a lock based on this. CHI also probably not a zero now. $400 million market cap ir.rezolutebio.com/news/detail/37…

$NKTR this sell off is incredible. I know there's a debate on BioX on this one, but RSI 24 with 4.4M shares short now. Grab the popcorn. $XBI

Makary’s time atop FDA over, Diamantas named acting commissioner subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2026/0…

$ESPR Pathetic end to the story. I was dead wrong. Worst CEO of the year candidate; he didn't even try.

$ESPR Stock has been a complete stinker going into this (investors concerned that they wouldn't get it? 14% of float is short), but good to finally see inclusion into US AHA/ACC guidelines. Importantly, oral PCSK9i's will not have this at launch and will need years to complete outcomes studies. And these guidelines get updated like once a decade (was last updated in 2018). Just quite amazing that this is trading for 1.5x sales and a '27 P/E of like 8x. And now they can generate cash until 2040 esperion.com/news-releases/…

$ESPR I'm sure I will regret saying this, but ESPR sure seems interesting after this dip. The valuation (~2.5x sales) is already baking in competitive nervousness from oral PCSK9 entry later this year. But Nexletol will be added to lipid guidelines in the coming weeks (very impactful for primary care drugs, IMO), the company is going to be profitable this year after battling a weak balance sheet for years, is showing significant growth ex-US (royalties), and their successful IP defense means that the franchise will be generating profits until 2040 (Two Seas Capital (the litigation fund that owns $NKTR) also owns this one). This recent deal was also surprisingly well executed (they gave up very little). Based on the Furoscix (MNKD) launch, why wouldn't this new product be $100M+ in a few years of mostly pure contribution to the bottom line? They already preannounced 4Q25/2025, so no nervousness into earnings. All of this might be enough to get it out of shtco land one day $XBI

@Sanctuary_Bio $NTLA the best moment will be when investors start finding out that they were allocated their full indication 😂

$TVTX Dimerix $DXB just announced a big push out for their FSGS program. They decided to go for full approval based on the final read out of their study (vs going for accelerated approval based on interim data). Last patient, last dose is March 2028. Approval probably not until 2029 year end? Stock is down 35% in Australia. Nice win for $TVTX $XBI investors.dimerix.com/investor-centr…

@Sanctuary_Bio $CATX

@fakepharmabro 🤔Is there something incrementally concerning in the data? Maybe good for $ELVN? $XBI $TERN $MRK

$QNRX Following the $PVLA playbook. Would be a very fast Phase III program (single study, single arm). Data and filing next year. Microcap $XBI

$PVLA success paving the path and creating the playbook for $QNRX. Microcap that probably won’t be for long $XBI

$QNRX baby $PVLA vibes

$CATX Good safety update with the bigger dataset to come mid year. Importantly, "There were no reports of dose limiting toxicities (DLTs), treatment-related discontinuations, serious renal complications, dysphagia, or clinically significant treatment-related myelosuppression." $SNY / AlphaMedix (once their only real competitor) ditched their program because of renal toxicity and like 40%+ dysphagia rates. Seems to be an uncomplicated setup with a lot of upside if data continue to look this way $XBI

$CATX $175M financing removes the overhang and will let the data speak. Deal was priced with strength (no discount). "The financing included participation from Commodore Capital, TCGX, Spruce Street Capital, Surveyor Capital (a Citadel company), Affinity Asset Advisors, HBM Healthcare Investments, Ally Bridge Group and other leading healthcare specialist and long only investors."

$CATX Who knows where the stock settles, but this one at ~$300M in market cap now looks pretty compelling IMO. Efficacy will almost certainly improve in subsequent updates (ASCO next) and safety has been super clean (important for NETs and esp in the 1L setting). Now, with SNY gone, frontline / Lutathera TAM suddenly seems pretty real for them... $XBI