macro analyst @_macroanalyst

Until death, all defeat is psychological.

It seems like most single PM spinouts fail because the skills that make someone a great platform PM don’t translate well into running an independent fund. At a place like Citadel or P72, the PM benefits from: 1. institutional risk controls 2. data infrastructure 3. execution 4. guardrails that quietly account for a huge share of their edge Once they leave, they lose that entire ecosystem while taking on new responsibilities they’ve never had before like: 1. fundraising 2. hiring 3. operations 4. running a broader mandate to justify billions in AUM. On top of that, fundamental L/S equity is a much tougher game today, capacity is limited, and performance tends to suffer when PMs are forced to scale past their natural sweet spot. Put all of that together and it’s not surprising the failure rate is so high.

At the end W. David Marx's Status and Culture, he describes our current state of culture as being defined by 'omnivore tastes'. "The most masterly wardrobes mix vintage Givenchy with Uniqlo" he says. I think this manifests in these 'mysterious source of income' people who, by virtue of crypto, grifting, or talent, become wealthy, but due to the collapsing of status signals, become utterly impossible to visually place on a hierarchy. Where did the money come from? Is it generational wealth? Is it credit card debt? Are they actually broke? Nobody knows!

I don’t know a single person who believes the future is going to be better than the past, and the reason is the spread of this kind of psychocapitalist technofascist ideology. the project of humanity in the 21st century should be ridding the world of it by any means necessary.

More Perfect Union @MorePerfectUS

8 months ago

The co-founder of Kalshi says: " The long-term vision is to financialize everything and create a tradable asset out of any difference in opinion."

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Every pre-school teacher in America should be required to watch this video of Alex Karp being completely unable to sit still in his chair.

The ‘intelligent psychopath’ you see in fiction is rare. Hannibal Lecter is mostly a fiction. One of the most ‘successful’ serial killers Gary Ridgeway - killed probably 90-100 women - has an IQ of 82. It’s obvious he’s dumb in his interviews - available online.

Crémieux @cremieuxrecueil

9 months ago

New meta-analysis of IQ and violence found that, compared to nonviolent controls, violent persons averaged about 28-point lower IQs. That's a pretty sizable gap!

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@minordissent What a pathetic argument. Imagine thinking that how much money you make or how many material assets you own is the measure by which quality and satisfaction of life should be measured.

i think it's really funny that these designs were so successful at their mission of inspiring awe that you now get people like this

𝐁𝐢𝐟𝐟 @Biffdon

9 months ago

I don't believe humans built this now or ever. Either the simulation messed up or it was an artifact brought here from another one.

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Yesterday, I took an Uber in New York. The driver was an Egyptian Muslim who has been living in the U.S. for 35 years. He heard me speaking Arabic on the phone, which led to a conversation about how great America is and how, as a foreign-born citizen, he’s treated equally. I explained to him how Islamic countries could reach the level of freedom and prosperity the U.S. enjoys, and I mentioned how Christians in Egypt live as second-class citizens and face persecution. Since he had just praised how equally he’s treated in America, I expected him to agree with me. Instead, he became defensive, justifying the persecution of Christians in Egypt, and went on to say that Egypt should apply Islam and Sharia more fully, claiming it’s “Islamic in name only.” Thirty-five years in a liberal democracy, yet he still can’t imagine governance apart from Islam, even while enjoying the benefits of an infidel, non-Islamic system. Sadly, Muslims will always embrace democracy only as a vehicle to serve their interests, until they can make Islam the law of the land.

The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes, ears, and biology. It was their final, most essential command.

emily may @emilykmay

9 months ago

whenever I read shit by a man with a massive platform that says things like "all men are attracted to minors" I desperately want to believe it's not true but then thousands of men in the comments happily proclaim it, and then we wonder why teen girls don't want to get married.

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No, landshark has covered this

The Ricky Gervais Clips @gervaisclips

9 months ago

This is atheism in a nutshell.

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Neither. Get him into microcap investing and teach him why that’s one of the few corners of public markets where an edge still exists. In microcaps, inefficiencies are real: limited analyst coverage, small float, and informational gaps create opportunities for investors who actually do the work. He’ll learn to read filings, evaluate management, and understand how liquidity, governance, and business fundamentals drive value. It’s slower, quieter, and harder, but that’s where skill matters more than hype.

@AdithiaKusno

Hi Adithia. Do you track Hedgeye and its CEO Keith McCullough? I think they’re the best macro research firm, and they suggest Quad 2 in Q4 this year (inflation, growth higher) and then Quad 1 in Q1 next year (growth higher, inflation lower). This Q1 would coincide with SPX mkt top, right?

@EPBResearch Best of luck and wishing you a speedy recovery!

Exactly. As @biancoresearch notes, if breakeven job growth is now near 0–50k and immigration flows are cooling, a softer payroll print does not automatically mean the labor market is collapsing. It just reflects slower population growth and lower replacement needs. Weak-looking numbers may still be consistent with stability.

Good point. Permits are flashing caution but margins are still high, which is why builders have held payrolls steady so far. As @EPBResearch notes, if the economy slows and demand softens, those fat margins can compress quickly. When that happens, employment can drop sharply as builders protect cash flow. But so far, looks like homebuilder margins are at or above pre COVID levels.

Exactly right. The Fed can trim the overnight rate, but mortgage costs live and die by the long end of the curve. As long as the 10-year Treasury stays elevated above 4%, mortgage-backed securities will keep repricing higher and lenders will protect their spreads. Cuts at the front don’t change that. Heavy Treasury issuance, persistent inflation risk, and investors demanding term premium all keep pressure on the 10-year. Until those forces ease or growth weakens enough to drive a true bond bid, mortgage rates will stay sticky. A headline cut is meaningless if the long end refuses to follow.