Tail Risk @_tailrisk

OpenAI’s Astra AI uses a new reasoning approach called “recurrent depth.” Though it can help model costs and performance, researchers are concerned bc it obscures a model’s thinking process, making it more difficult to monitor. w/ @amir @rocketalignment theinformation.com/articles/secre…

If you’re a macro investor, connect the dots for a second. Markets are pricing in a September hike, yields are surging, and the consensus is completely taking the bait. Druckenmiller who literally trained both Warsh and Bessent publicly takes a swing at Bessent’s bond market interventions. Bessent plays along, firing right back. Meanwhile, Warsh and Druck wrote this piece calling on the Fed to hold off on hikes in 18. It’s a masterclass in narrative control imo. Warsh gets styled as the uncompromised hawk to buy the central bank maximum market credibility even though everyone knows the core mandate from Trump is to cut rates. Trump throws up a bone, gets a deal with Iran. Crude gets crushed-> yields come down, energy drops, and inflation cools. Warsh gets his cover to aggressively cut, equities rip to fresh all time highs, and the Admin claims its "Golden Age." I mean come on it’s too obvious!!!

Hmmm

Gregory Conti @GregoryConti19

3 days ago

Superintelligence will mean the end of social mobility. Instead of your being able to rise based on your talent and labor, those with the most capital will simply outcompete you by buying more compute. It will mark the end of any sort of meritocracy, and the dawn of a new

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@teortaxesTex What does Chinas 2027 power capacity growth matter…? They have 4 times the power in aggregate…. They just have bad chips…

Copart: a wonderful company at a wonderful price (I bought it, of course) open.substack.com/pub/undiscover…

Not all IRR are the same across the AI infrastructure project landscape. The borrow rate for neoclouds is entirely different to that of hyperscalers. On the other hand, the risks are interweaved. If those firms have issues raising capital, I think the reverberations will be large

Brett Winton @wintonARK

5 days ago

a surprise I think is coming the quick payback periods and extraordinarily high IRR for AI infrastructure, even at monumental scale, will push up cost of capital sufficient to push many traditional businesses into the abyss, even those without obvious direct AI counter-exposure

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Bend the knee

Trade Whisperer @TradexWhisperer

2 weeks ago

$AAPL Tim Cook on $MU's $10 billion US-based Micron Research Labs Investment. “For more than two decades, Micron has been an important partner, providing memory technologies for Apple's groundbreaking products that people love and use every day around the world. With the launch

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I looked at this name again today and bought some Friday. This is not a get rich name but the risk adjusted reward looks quite good. $760m mcap company with consistent profitability since at least 1995 (as far as Koyfin data goes). Not a single Q of operating loss either.

URGENT: Update your @Rabby_io wallet extensions! 🚨 1) Go to extensions page (top right corner) 2) Activate dev mode 3) Click "update" Done! Stay safe!

I found two George Soros documents that explain how a guy who arrived in New York with roughly $5,000 ended up building a $7.5 billion fortune inside, Soros explains why being wrong is not the problem - staying wrong is. his entire process starts with building a hypothesis, watching how the market reacts, and changing the view the moment reality stops confirming it the interesting part is how little of his framework depends on predicting the future perfectly no fixed forecasts. no attachment to one thesis. no need to be right from the beginning bookmark this and read both documents below

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@Blinklebloop Owner owns majority, similar to a lot of undervalued stocks in HK. They also usually pay a high divy which acts as founders own piggy bank. Harder than usual for rerating especially with HK stocks…

It’s interesting to think about open AI delaying their IPO relative to Anthropic. It’s getting costlier to borrow money and it feels more like First come first served market. I think the reason is their financial are a mess and they are figuring out ways to dress things up. Anthropic IPO may very well be a local top in hindsight

Some of you might not be familiar with Niche Asset Management, a London-based investment boutique, as they tend to keep a low profile. They manage a few investment strategies. One is focused on small/microcap Japanese stocks trading at half of their NAV 🇯🇵 Once the stocks reach NAV they sell. They have a pretty decent track record - annualised 24.42% since inception in 2022. Below are the top positions (they have 123 holdings all together). Any of these companies worth researching?

I called the “refresher” my “tracker” and it will on a periodic basis reads news, tweets, and various analysis website and update this document for any theme I ask it. On a daily basis when I talk to it, it has the full context on a bunch of themes I care about.

Matt Dratch @DratchCap

3 weeks ago

AI is improving knowledge work faster than most of Wall St appreciates imho. From my own use, it keeps gettin better and faster. Things particularly improve when you make models / agents argue with each other in front of a judge w/ verifier agents. This is all anecdotal, but

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It’s been a sleeper since IPO…Chinese stocks don’t go up. If they do, they just come back down. Management cultures don’t translate in to long run shareholder return. Trust me, avoid it.

KawzInvests @KawzInvests

3 weeks ago

Agreed, $BABA is a sleeper. AliCloud external revenue grew 40% last quarter. AI product revenue just hit its 11th straight quarter of triple digit growth. They also own ~5% of CXMT, bought for 7.6B yuan, now worth over $20B. 👀

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Just got to finally review Tencent and JD Q2 numbers. Tencent is taking a page out the US big tech: time to turn the screws on the core business to pay for the AI party. And this is interesting, because Alibaba cannot do this. Drawing parallels between how the Chinese players are doing AI vs the US ones helps. I think of all the big tech names (US and China) as a combo of: 1-CORE biz --whoever is not exercising pricing power today to extract cash from the plebs and pay the AI party doesn't have much of a business --All US guys are doing well here, in China only Tencent 2-AI infra biz --this is the capex drain, for a little ebit --Free ride on P&L day 1 (god bless GAAP) 3-AI application biz --the opex drain, negative ebit, bad for P&L day 1 --the hope and fear is the future CORE business will be born here Having #1 is most important. All US guys do, and are showing in their Qs that they can turn the screws. Tolerated gentle monopolies for years now demand blood: --Google and Meta are squeezing impressions up and price up, and advertisers have no alternative but to eat it and cut budget elsewhere (go ask TTD) --MSFT too by raising software prices (what are you going to do, cancel Office 365 and Onedrive?) --Amazon raising take rates, ads and logistic fees (and sellers eat it to, because the alternative is to go DTC and pay google/meta) --Apple no need to discuss their pricing power --For China, only Tencent can exercise a similar power. See Q2 marketing revenue up 22% and domestic games up 17% --Alibaba cannot do this. Their core business, while large, is stagnant and has real competition Once we have a view on the CORE, we add #2 (AI infra) and #3 (AI application) to get the full picture: --Apple doesn't have any #2 #3. Amazon mostly does #2. Both close to ATH. Will avoiding #3 come to bite them in the future who knows (for shareholders doesn't matter, if that happens we can sell then). MSFT recent emphasis on #2 over #3 also well received --Google is juggling both #2 and #3, without a leading position in either, seeing the wolf's ears and raising equity --Meta is only in #3 and being hit the hardest, raising the white flag trying to get into #2 #3 seems to be the source of problems for big tech. No wonder, since every dollar in private markets is funding a competitor. Having #2 provides a hedge, albeit you may be enabling the future competitor that will show up and take away your CORE business. Taking this framework to China: Alibaba and Tencent both have #2 and #3, and definitely going all-in on both. In that sense, they are only similar to Google, but with a much smaller cloud in relative terms, and a much weaker CORE business in the case of Alibaba. Valuations reflect this. Even Xiaomi, who could play it cool like Apple, is going for #3 and plays #2 via KC. To see how this shows up in numbers, check Tencent 2Q26: --They show CORE operating profit "ex AI" up +19% (solid core business as discussed) --Now load up AI opex, and the operating profit growth is just +9% (that's the impact of #3) --Now load up AI capex, and from operating profit we turn FCF negative (that's the impact of #2) This is a lot better than Alibaba though, where pending Q2 results: --The CORE operating profit is not up but down from usd30bn to usd15bn, as instead of exercising pricing power they are trying to defibrillate the business and bring back growth --Then a cloud business that makes usd2bn of ebit selling tokens ---with usd25bn of annual capex, and ---with an AI application business costing usd10bn of opex ---people getting excited about cloud accelerating from 35% to 45% may be missing the picture. At usd2bn EBIT, we need cloud to double ebit every year from here So to sum it up: Money's favorites today are players showing pricing power in #1 and with a sizeable #2 business and not doing experiments on #3. China doesn't have that. So that's the photo, but let's watch the movie.

Price of a home in San Francisco over the last 10 years expressed in QQQ shares

This is hubris at an unprecedented level. I’m an AI bull but increasingly the guys at the top think they are untouchable and creating god. I can see why there is an hit piece on wsj on his wife. Factions are forming.

Fireside Alpha @firesidealpha

3 weeks ago

Gavin Baker reveals that Dario has said internally that Anthropic may be the only private company in the world at some point, based on Baker's trusted sources "Internally, Anthropic is very confident. I have been told by multiple people I trust that Dario has said that Anthropic

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I’m tempted to just subscribe to see the shit shown behind the curtain

Likely someone hired to do a hit piece on her lol

Just Another Pod Guy @TMTLongShort

3 weeks ago

This is what happens when your autistic husband gets into a fight with a high-performing twink.

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