blics @blics
Focused on tech, sustainability, & health. $BTC, G-SHOCKs, and Volvos. Pasadena-based. 20+ years as an operator. Past: @oakley @speedo @skyzone Pasadena, CA Joined March 2009-
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Crypto sentiment is at its worst level since the FTX collapse; the RSI is at an all-time low, Google searches are down, and the fear and greed index is screaming danger, so I sat down with my friend Tom Lee (@fundstrat), Fundstrat's (@fundstratCap) chief strategist and Bitmain's CEO, to get his honest take on where Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the entire crypto market go from here. If you're sitting on unrealized losses right now and wondering whether to hold or fold, this is the conversation you need to hear. Watch/Listen on X, YouTube, and Spotify. Timestamps 0:00 Tom Lee Introduction 1:12 Is capital being sucked out of crypto into AI? 3:05 Is Bitcoin in a 4-year cycle? 6:58 Tom Lee on Ethereum: "Price is lagging fundamentals." 8:55 Tom Lee: "AI agents might become wealthier than us." 9:46 Is Tom Lee worried about Quantum resistance in Bitcoin? 11:22 Anthony: "Michael Saylor has become the Bitcoin narrative." 14:35 Anthony's Bitmine bull vs bear case 18:21 Post-FTX conviction: Bitcoin went from $15K to $126K, what does that teach you? 21:47 Tom Lee: These are dark days, but July is a new month
Each bitcoin bear market is shallower than the last, because the wave of high conviction buyers gets stronger every year.
every cycle, it seems, a reason shows up right on time to explain the drawdown the 4-year cycle already predicted. ICOs (2018), Fed + FTX (2022), AI (now). real causes, or just the story we tell about a bear that was coming anyway?
We are simultaneously clearing leverage in Bitcoin before a narrative shift towards Bitcoin & Crypto / away from AI as we head into the mid-terms AND taking profits on early stage AI. Want early evidence? GOOG, NVDA, AMZN - are all down. SPCX IPO blowing up before unlocks even
We are simultaneously clearing leverage in Bitcoin before a narrative shift towards Bitcoin & Crypto / away from AI as we head into the mid-terms AND taking profits on early stage AI. Want early evidence? GOOG, NVDA, AMZN - are all down. SPCX IPO blowing up before unlocks even start & US Govt demanding restrictions on AI CO’s.
Of the 28 first-time head coaches hired 2013–2020, 75% are already out, and only TWO still hold the job they were hired for. Almost all on guaranteed deals. The guarantee never bought security. It just decided who eats the firing. The real fight is severance and authority, not "value."
NBA coaching dynamics aren’t something I really understand, so genuinely asking here. But with any open job, both sides have to agree, it’s a partnership. Nori got to weigh everything and decide whether to take it. Dundon might be cheap, but Nori still said yes. Isn’t that just how it works?
Of the 28 first-time head coaches hired 2013–2020, 75% are already out, and only TWO still hold the job they were hired for. Almost all on guaranteed deals. The guarantee never bought security. It just decided who eats the firing. The real fight is severance and authority, not "value."
JUST IN: $12.6 trillion Charles Schwab officially rolls out Bitcoin trading 🚀
And here's the test. Sub-$60K already. The 200-week MA just flipped from support to overhead (intraday, not a weekly close yet, but the test is on). The ones that actually matter are still well below: power law ~$55K, realized price ~$54K, LTH cost ~$49.5K. Plenty of room before anyone's truly cheap. bitcoin:native
What's still holding, just below price: · 200-week MA ~$62K · power law floor ~$55K · realized price ~$54K · long-term holder cost ~$49.5K These are the deep ones. The floors that I think actually matter.
I'm just watching one thing: Do the levels that always broke finally hold? break them = same old cycle. hold them = this is what "different" actually looks like. no matter, BTC is still headed to ATHs.
The genuinely different outcome is holding them. No capitulation. never getting truly cheap. a higher low than the four-year cycle demands.
Does anyone really know what happens with bitcoin:native next. I've stopped pretending the charts do. There's one thing I think that's worth watching. It's not a prediction, but a line in the sand.
I want this to be true. the 4-year cycle debate comes down to this level ($60k). the 200 WMA and power law floor both sit there. if we lose it, the bear plays out on schedule. if we hold it, then we never even got cheap. same number, two different futures (short-term, of course)
it's happening and i'm here for it. who should we be following in this space to keep up? a few come to mind... instagram.com/askcatgpt/ @andruyeung i recently bought a stickerbox for my kids. not quite analog, but very fun. stickerbox.com/products/stick…
You know what's about to explode? Analog. The real world.
You know what's about to explode? Analog. The real world.
Can't shake the feeling we've got further to fall. Even optimistic takes do it to me. "Different" can also mean "not done." MAYBE we are in a structurally stronger market. Genuinely could be.
This time is ALREADY different. 259 days after the $126K top, bitcoin is at $65.4K and down 48.1% from ATH. For comparison: Day 259 / final low: 2011: -84.8% / -92.7% (already bottomed) 2013–15: -54.6% / -84.5% 2017–18: -63.4% / -83.8% 2021–22: -68.2% / -76.6% The last two
The fact that you can consume years of someone's work in one book never stops being amazing. A few of these were the most insightful, genuinely helpful reads I found starting out in this space.
Get top bitcoin books in high quality long-lasting hardcover, audiobook, or ebook with worldwide delivery and seamless checkout via Bitcoin (on-chain & Lightning) or fiat. Enjoy a 10% discount when paying with bitcoin. bit.ly/46zZ5fx
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