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@GrahamStephan I used to think like this too, but doing some research. Most funds still fail to beat the index even during bear markets
@coffeebreak_YT @USTreasury This is all going to end so badly, and it's amazing how uninformed or misinformed the public is about what's happening these days.
I did dabble in a few alt coins for fun, but it was always a tiny amount of money. The vast majority of my crypto money was always in BTC and it ended up being the correct call.
I don't know any more than anyone else, but my prediction for the crypto market ended up being pretty accurate.
@TheCryptoLark nope. I think the bullrun is over. Macro econ and technicals look very bad for Bitcoin. 69k was probably the local top. probably heading to 20k this year. Hopefully we see 100k+ next run in a few years.
The kind of gambling money from desperate young people used to flow into altcoins. Now it’s flowing into gambling, but with the added twist of being backed by huge companies and the politicians they buy.
blaming gen-z for this is so lazy. no previous generation had to deal with "super-apps" that place sports betting (pm) right next to your retirement account.
@EricBalchunas Voo and chill doesn’t sound as appealing if you don’t have much hope for improving your financial future. This kind of gambling money used to flow into altcoins; now it’s flowing into gambling, but with the added twist of being backed by huge companies & the politicians they buy.
@GrahamStephan Actually, I think it's probably worse for Gen X. People retiring in the 30s might have some issues if they are over invested in stocks.
Large institutions will be better able to handle the wave of AI attacks vs small wallet companies. Big guys win again.
this is insane claude code found the COLDCARD wallet vulnerability with a single prompt, in just 8 minutes of thinking we're not ready for what's coming
More broadly, it's interesting to watch some Bitcoiners confront a basic reality: society only works because we place trust in people and institutions. A worldview centered almost entirely on individual responsibility isn't very practical.
I was already skeptical once Bitcoin became so political and institutional. Now it's also losing the appeal of the original self-custody story. Sure, it may reach new all-time highs again, but it was already on a path toward diminishing returns before this hack.
The Coldcard hack may be one of the worst things to happen to Bitcoin because its core promise has always been: you can hold your own keys. This puts a major crack in that narrative. Asking people to roll a bunch of dice or do paper wallets is not practical.
@EricBalchunas Seeding accounts for the excluded addresses a real, measurable gap, but at current per-child amounts and zip-code-level targeting, the scale doesn't match the size of that gap. For example, splitting $10 billion across 25 million eligible kids works out to $400 each.
@StealthQE4 Only true if you are paying a mortgage you cannot afford.
Bitcoin has no cash flows, so its value depends entirely on narrative, niche utility, & scarcity. The niche utility might be enough, but the compute, power, and infrastructure spent mining it increasingly compete with AI, which puts that capital to more productive use.
When BTC was around 100k, it became too much of my portfolio, so I ended up selling quite a bit. Over the past year, I've lost conviction in BTC (and already lost conviction in crypto prior). We will see if I'm wrong, but I'm mostly buying $VT and real estate these days.
@brian_armstrong @chamath If Bitcoin price actually measured fear of inflation, then it wouldn't have crashed this past year. Structural changes do happen, and people using computing power on something else more valuable is a real problem for BTC.
“Don't look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack!" —John Bogle
Only 135 of the S&P 500 constituents in 1996 are still in the index today. Capitalism moves fast.
Also, it's okay to rebalance if one part of your portfolio becomes too large based on your financial planning.
Still true today.
Buy #Bitcoin and broad index funds. Hold for years. Sell only after you’ve met your financial goals. #StayTheCourse #Boglehead
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