James Falkiner @foxlow

L/S mgr, banks specialist. ExSBCWarburg/UBS. Securities industry since March1987. BSc(Syd, Biology) Skier. Cyclist. General advice only for wholesale investors. falkinerglobalinvestors.com Sydney, Australia Joined December 2009

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James Falkiner @foxlow

3 hours ago

@biancoresearch And studies show that active managers with net outflow status perform noticeably worse than those with net inflows.

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James Falkiner @foxlow

2 days ago

@charliebilello Hike before the midterms? Yeah sure.

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James Falkiner @foxlow

2 days ago

@henrysgao Zhu stood on the shoulders of Hu Yaobang. In some ways if Mao was a Stalin type, Hu was more like Khrushchev.

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James Falkiner @foxlow

2 days ago

@JulianGewirtz It’s an utter croq to say China plays a long game. The CCP plays one game only. Perpetuating CCP rule.

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James Falkiner @foxlow

3 days ago

"The property sector is in a prolonged downturn that could last for the better part of a generation. (it only started in 2021). China could well face a version of Japan’s lost decade—but worse. ...Today, China is much poorer on a relative basis than Japan was. Its per capita income, when adjusted for purchasing power, is about half of Japan’s and one third of the United States’. China also faces a worse demographic outlook than Japan did and lacks the institutional infrastructure that enabled Tokyo to gradually recover.

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James Falkiner @foxlow

3 days ago

"It also reflects Xi’s deeply rooted belief, as reflected in a 2020 speech, that although China must “accelerate construction of the digital economy . . . the real economy is the foundation, and the various manufacturing industries cannot be abandoned.” As the economist Zongyuan Zoe Liu has written in these pages, “As the party sees it, consumption is an individualistic distraction that threatens to divert resources away from China’s core economic strength: its industrial base.”

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James Falkiner @foxlow

3 days ago

"Put simply, Beijing has outgrown its economic model. When the Chinese export machine stalls, the reckoning will be most painful for China. But a material slowdown in its economy would send shock waves around the world, especially among China’s major trading partners..." Pay attention Australia.

George Magnus @georgemagnus1

3 days ago

Interesting piece by @CFR_org boss on how pushback against China’s industrial/ trade pols could lead to a China crisis. I agree - my book in progress is abt this too - but not sure if nations think the China shock is serious enough yet.Unfortunately. foreignaffairs.com/china/next-glo…

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James Falkiner @foxlow

5 days ago

Analysts are largely left with high-level NPL and early-arrears ratios plus whatever selective commentary the banks choose to provide. That combination makes it difficult for investors, analysts, or the broader public to form a clear view of how much stress is being managed through concessions rather than being recognised as impaired. There is no requirement for banks to publish regular, standardised, granular data on the stock of loans under hardship arrangements, the number or value of temporary interest-only switches, payment reductions, deferrals, or term extensions. There is no public series that tracks how many loans have received multiple concessions, their subsequent performance, or the gap between reported NPLs and the broader pool of modified loans. APRA itself chooses not to release the more detailed aggregates it collects, so the market cannot independently monitor trends in potential evergreening versus genuine temporary relief.

Antipodean Macro @AntipodeanMacro

5 days ago

Should help consumption smoothing.

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James Falkiner @foxlow

5 days ago

A quite misleading chart. The RBA should know better. The problem is the bottom 10-15% of borrowers at present, with <1m prepayment buffer, high debt/income, and weak equity positions. It's also about time APRA started providing granular detail of the evergreening that's been going on.

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James Falkiner @foxlow

5 days ago

@cmkusher Ask no questions, you will be told no lies.

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James Falkiner @foxlow

5 days ago

@martin_whetton Probably the situation at present, but it increases the risk of market dysfunction. Westpac’s 1992 loss was driven by a change in valuation assumption from 2 year willing buyer willing seller, to 1 year forced seller. Stock overhangs encourage a buyer absence.

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James Falkiner @foxlow

5 days ago

@_warrenhogan Undoubtedly getting pushback from government delegates on rate setting board.

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James Falkiner @foxlow

a week ago

Without the ISO Class 1 environment + tool mini-environments + scanner particle control, PRP rates would be orders of magnitude higher and EUV high-volume production would face prohibitive scrap rates. At the tightest pitches, stochastic defects (photon shot noise, resist chemistry fluctuations) often become a larger yield limiter than classic particles, but particles remain a constant background risk that the cleanroom must suppress. Wafer-sort yields for mature TSMC advanced nodes are typically high (often well above 70–80%+ for smaller dies after process maturity), with particles controlled tightly enough that they are only one contributor among many to the remaining loss.

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James Falkiner @foxlow

a week ago

The particulate environment for particles ≥ 0.1 μm is kept at the extreme of ≤ 10/m³ (ISO 1) in the EUV zones.

Vivek Sen @Vivek4real_

2 weeks ago

TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR $TSM DROPPED A VIDEO FROM ITS ARIZONA FAB SHOWING ASML $ASML EUV MACHINES PRINTING NEXT-GENERATION CHIPS. THIS IS ABSOLUTELY STUNNING TO WATCH 🤯

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James Falkiner @foxlow

a week ago

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James Falkiner @foxlow

a week ago

Does the AFR.com prefer fiction? $REA.AX share price, now only down 37% from the highs, and 27% off the lows. Are we meant to believe that doom and gloom is overdone? afr.com/chanticleer/is…

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James Falkiner @foxlow

2 weeks ago

Wall of sellers in central Sydney CBD. Something like 6-8 years supply at current transaction rates. @SQMResearch

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James Falkiner @foxlow

2 weeks ago

@JohnHCochrane This is the best explanation of why things are going to get very ugly in Australia if fiscal spending isn't curtailed. This slow rate hike gambit, being pursued by the @RBAInfo, together with @AlboMP's spending, will crush the housing market and the economy.