Joequant @joequant

Physicist and Space Cadet @MIT @UTAustin github.com/joequant Hong Kong Joined June 2009

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Joequant @joequant

4 hours ago

The thing is that I think we will move to this system because everything else break.

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China can't move the exchange rate without cause macro problems. The solution is to put in a layer of mayonaise. So you do CNY<->bitcoin and USD<->bitcoin. Each currency can move independently against bitcoin and so you can have currencies move more quickly into equilibrium.

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Joequant @joequant

4 hours ago

@adam_tooze made some comments at the Dalian conference and he particularly mentioned @Brad_Setser and @SanderTordoir So I think Tooze is being too conventional. youtube.com/watch?v=XHB9DV…

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Joequant @joequant

4 hours ago

So some fund speculation on who might be buying US Treasuries if not China... joequant.substack.com/p/so-about-non…

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Joequant @joequant

10 hours ago

Fascinating, that the term sci-tech is a pretty common Chinese term. I didn't realize it that wasn't common in English until @adam_tooze mentioned it. youtube.com/watch?v=XHB9DV…

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Joequant @joequant

11 hours ago

@Kathleen_Tyson_ to cross. This might explain why Europe is so much of a mess. The US does not want "allies" that can stand up to them, which is why all the European leaders are non-entities. The last laugh is if the US just abandons the mess.

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Joequant @joequant

11 hours ago

@Kathleen_Tyson_ Not to mention the mini-bond scandal in Hong Kong. So the US part of Lehman got pulled in by Barclays. Asia got pulled in by Nomura. It's only Lehman UK that lost. The thing is that the UK (and HK got screwed), but I think this was because Russia and China were too important

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Joequant @joequant

13 hours ago

@Kathleen_Tyson_ Is that if the Israelis and neocons get their way, we all die, and even pedophiles should realize that you need oil to get to the island.

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Joequant @joequant

13 hours ago

@Kathleen_Tyson_ My big problem with US foreign/economic policy is that it doesn't seem to be good for the US. Okay, you might argue that it's good for the "elites" but it's not even good for them. One thing that it becoming obvious to Kushner and Witkoff.

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Joequant @joequant

13 hours ago

@Kathleen_Tyson_ Yeah. The thing is that before 2014, you could try to argue that it wasn't against Chinese or Russian national interests for China to finance the US military. I do think that something changed in US foreign policy in late Obama.

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Joequant @joequant

13 hours ago

@Kathleen_Tyson_ What is both cool/scary/bizarre is that the current situation makes 2008 look like a walk in the park.

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Joequant @joequant

13 hours ago

@Kathleen_Tyson_ China and Russia. Both China and Russia believed that by propping up the West, that they would be given seats in the new world. Well.... Russia lost its faith in 2014 with Ukraine. I think China was still hopeful until the early 2020s.