@TimeCycleLab @timecyclelab
Market cycles and pattern recognition. Proprietary timing methodology. $SPX $DJIA $XJO $XAO timecyclelab.substack.com Joined September 2016-
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I built the simpler version of a 1973 S&P500 trading pattern its own inventor said was less trustworthy. It loses on raw return. It beats 99.8% of random portfolios on drawdown. Terry was half right. timecyclelab.substack.com/p/18-mechanisi…
New Update posted for Dow and S&P: substack.com/@timecyclelab/…
4/We’re not selling “this works.” We’re showing our work — including the correction we had to make mid-report when our own numbers didn’t match the live chart. Full breakdown, receipts included 👇 timecyclelab.substack.com/p/16-mechanisi…
3/The honest version: it beat buy-and-hold by ~1pp/year, invested only 54% of the time. But the “crash protection” this framework is famous for? Only 1.8pp better drawdown — not the halving people claim. And ~90% of the edge comes from the last 12 trades.
1/In 2006, Terry Laundry — the analyst behind T-Theory — tried to program the one step in his own framework that couldn’t be automated: the “Cash Build Up.” He got as far as “my tooling is obsolete,” called it his highest priority, and went back to drawing it by hand.
#16. Lab Note: We Built a Cycle Map for the S&P 500 Been quietly building a proprietary time-cycle framework, backtested against 25+ years of SPX data. But two things just lined up: a sharp breadth breakdown, and our framework flagging a transition. timecyclelab.substack.com/p/16-lab-note-…
#15. Lab Note: Six Weeks In Six weeks, fourteen posts in — time to take stock. No dramatic new finding. Just enough on the table now to show how it fits together, and be honest about what's still missing. timecyclelab.substack.com/p/15-lab-note-…
#14. Case Study: The T That Hit — and Nobody Said So Last case study: a T that couldn't make up its mind. This one's the opposite — the forecast landed almost exactly on schedule. And Terry never once pointed it out. timecyclelab.substack.com/p/14-case-stud…
#13. Free Tool: Adaptive Channel Bands. Free tool built on Terry Laundry's proprietary S&P500 Adaptive Channel concept — a moving-average centerline with bands that expand/contract with recent volatility. timecyclelab.substack.com/p/13-free-tool…
#12. Framework: The S&P500 Envelope Terry Never Published He described the concept in detail but never published the formula, calling it "very complicated to compute and remain proprietary." timecyclelab.substack.com/p/12-framework…
#11. Case Study: The T That Flip-Flopped Most of the T-Theory archive reads like a forecaster settled into his method. The T that formed in spring 2004 didn't: bullish, bearish, bullish again, then bearish again. Honesty matters more than the accuracy. timecyclelab.substack.com/p/the-t-that-f…
#10. Framework III: The Center Post Low Every T has a hinge point. Get it right, and the time symmetry that follows is remarkably accurate. Get it wrong, and the error propagates twice. timecyclelab.substack.com/p/framework-ii…
#9. Framework II: The Cash Build Up Everyone who finds T-Theory fixates on the projection — the target date, the symmetry. But the projection only exists because of something that happens first, and it gets ignored: the Cash Build Up. timecyclelab.substack.com/p/framework-th…
#8. Framework I: What is T-Theory Markets spend roughly half their time going up, half going down — but compound higher over any long stretch. Most call that noise. Terry Laundry spent 40 years treating it as a clue. timecyclelab.substack.com/p/framework-wh…
#7. Lab Note: Where This Is Going Some have asked if TimeCycleLab will make a market call. Not yet. Terry Laundry ran a market-timing framework for 30 years and never rigorously tested it. I’m rebuilding his full archive before I call anything. timecyclelab.substack.com/p/where-this-i…
#6. Case Study: Steve’s T open.substack.com/pub/timecyclel…
#5. Case Study: The March 2003 T open.substack.com/pub/timecyclel…
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