Andrej / severe-weather.eu @Recretos

Weather/climate enthusiast and forecaster. Info on global weather models, weather patterns, winter, stratosphere, polar vortex, custom graphics, and more... severe-weather.eu/author/asflis/ Slovenia Joined July 2010

Tweets

3K
Followers

2K
Following

216
Likes

3K

Andrej / severe-weather.eu @Recretos

23 hours ago

@Stysz That's not a developing La Niña. That is a region of upwelling following the strong westerly wind burst anomalies. La Niña forms in the opposite way, with strong easterly trade winds and upwelling in the eastern ENSO regions.

1 0 4 144 0

View Details

Andrej / severe-weather.eu @Recretos

7 days ago

@Met4CastUK Thanks for sharing my plot. Tho I have to say that your comment section is on another level... 😁

0 0 5 820 0

View Details

Andrej / severe-weather.eu @Recretos

a week ago

@LeonSimons8 A lot of people call this a Godzilla El Niño, and I can't blame them... :)

0 1 11 392 0

View Details

Andrej / severe-weather.eu @Recretos

a week ago

@mcreal82 Great work, and congratulations on your publication! I will gladly read over it, thank you! 🙏

1 0 1 24 0

View Details

Andrej / severe-weather.eu @Recretos

a week ago

@BenNollWeather Great look, July was even crazier, ranking top over a wide area

0 0 2 23 0

View Details

Andrej / severe-weather.eu @Recretos

2 weeks ago

@FranklinOrmaza1 @fimcmespol @negro475 This is apples vs pears comparison. The CDAS is lower quality, and you are also cherrypicking by using different parameters. Your CDAS map is not normal, but has the global mean removed. That will look different/colder than any other normal analysis. Attached is the real analysis

0 0 2 183 0

View Details

Andrej / severe-weather.eu @Recretos

2 weeks ago

@AtmoslabWX Nice work! May I ask why you chose to pair white outlines with that colorbar? Makes it less intuitive to read as the lines blend into the colorbar. Have you tried black outlines or at least gray?

0 0 0 17 0

View Details

Andrej / severe-weather.eu @Recretos

3 weeks ago

@daniloevan11 It is likely the peak anomalies will reach 4K or 5K in the 3.4 and especially the 3 region, but the area average on a monthly/seasonal scale (like model predictions show) could peak at 3, as a modest estimate

0 0 0 29 0

View Details

Andrej / severe-weather.eu @Recretos

a month ago

@RongeLukas Truly amazing work!

0 0 2 150 0

View Details

Andrej / severe-weather.eu @Recretos

a month ago

@Drahokoupil_Jan @Djpuco @RongeLukas This is AMAZING! :o Thank you!

0 0 1 101 1

View Details

Andrej / severe-weather.eu @Recretos

a month ago

@JorgePaolini1 It shows that the PDF+Spread correction is too strongly downplaying this event, as its quite below the analysis and current developing trends for July.

1 0 1 37 0

View Details

Andrej / severe-weather.eu @Recretos

2 months ago

@rmurtugudde I think 2015/2016 was the last Super El Nino.

0 0 0 57 0

View Details

Andrej / severe-weather.eu @Recretos

4 months ago

@novasufferer134 @AndyHazelton It would put it 3rd at that October data point, yes. We have yet to see what the full ECMWF RONI peak looks like. But the extended ONI forecast is quite significant.

0 0 1 117 0

View Details

Andrej / severe-weather.eu @Recretos

4 months ago

Comparing some of the latest forecast runs to past strong El Niño events shows we are in for quite a historic ride, if verified. Both the BOM and CFSv2 use the Relative ENSO index forecast. Interesting to see how close the new BOM forecast is to the ECMWF. @AndyHazelton @webberweather @PaulRoundy1 @tcrawf_nh @BenNollWeather

4 12 51 6K 5

View Details

Andrej / severe-weather.eu @Recretos

4 months ago

@novasufferer134 @AndyHazelton This is from the historical file calculated by NOAA/PSL, so its most likely that its ONI

1 0 1 67 0

View Details

Andrej / severe-weather.eu @Recretos

4 months ago

@AndyHazelton Also, comparing the latest ECMWF run to the previous run for July and September, we can see a stronger El Niño, but also a bit more intensity in the "+PDO" signature

0 1 10 779 0

View Details

Andrej / severe-weather.eu @Recretos

4 months ago

@tcrawf_nh @AndyHazelton @webberweather @PaulRoundy1 I don't think it should in a grand way, similar to how the stratospheric U10mb winds dont really matter that much if they bottom out at 1m/s or -1m/s during an SSW event. But while small, the 0.3K delta should not be totally insignificant.

0 0 0 235 0

View Details

Andrej / severe-weather.eu @Recretos

4 months ago

Looking at the latest snapshot comparison to the last 2 Super El Niño events, we can see a significant speedup of the subsurface warming evolution in 2026 compared to the start of the month. @AndyHazelton @webberweather @PaulRoundy1 @tcrawf_nh

3 25 102 7K 10

View Details

Andrej / severe-weather.eu @Recretos

4 months ago

@AndyHazelton @webberweather @PaulRoundy1 @tcrawf_nh Last but not least, here is also the comparison graphic, using the May 5-9th forecast data, comparing it to the past 2 Super events. Also adding the CFSv2 Relative Niño index for good measure.

3 1 16 7K 2

View Details

Andrej / severe-weather.eu @Recretos

4 months ago

This is now also the revised plot for the older two Super events, comparing the late April 2026 data to April monthly means, and the second graphic is the forecast for May 5-9, 2026, compared to the May monthly mean for past events. The forecast comes from the Mercator Ocean International system, forced by ECMWF IFS.