firstlevelthinker @firstlevelthin1

Would Pumbaa and Timon think about downside? I think not. Joined May 2019

Tweets

230
Followers

127
Following

753
Likes

211

firstlevelthinker @firstlevelthin1

a week ago

@rickyho_1989 2 possibilities: either low margins as historic laggard that improves RONIC with capabilities getting commoditized and gap w/ legacy leaders start compressing, or low margins with high switching costs (so existing high turnover) to keep the cost savings from being competed away.

0 0 1 38 0

View Details

firstlevelthinker @firstlevelthin1

2 months ago

@TheLAPurchaser Hyundai Department Store

0 0 1 501 0

View Details

firstlevelthinker @firstlevelthin1

4 months ago

@ContrarianCurse Legit question: is this (and the general undertone of your posts) basically saying buy operating momentum + price momentum, sell whenever price momentum breaks? Does this require a high turnover + high name count approach in a portfolio and does it break outside big themes?

0 0 0 75 0

View Details

firstlevelthinker @firstlevelthin1

4 months ago

@firstadopter Early pent up demand?

0 0 0 14 0

View Details

firstlevelthinker @firstlevelthin1

8 months ago

@gordocap18 @sadandlonely_69 Depends how much. $1? Nope I don't disagree.

0 0 0 21 0

View Details

firstlevelthinker @firstlevelthin1

8 months ago

@gordocap18 @sadandlonely_69 So to bring it back to music, (1) why has the tail of songs increased hours spent share if music is THAT differentiated, and (2) if ARPU has a huge ceiling, how do you frame/split the engagement hours that are really undermonetized today vs. the engagement hours that aren't?

0 0 0 89 0

View Details

firstlevelthinker @firstlevelthin1

8 months ago

@gordocap18 @sadandlonely_69 You can see in other media (vid games pricing stagnant until monetization changed to hit whales' different price elasticity, videos' first few hours engagement more valuable than last few hours via dif in ARPUs of streaming sites w/ different hours spent).

1 0 0 64 0

View Details

firstlevelthinker @firstlevelthin1

9 months ago

@partners_road @pinstripe_cap @skarpaccio Regardless of the $100M in investments in US for Q3, cons. def wasn't modeling the pricing impact of Zyn in margins correctly for Q4 before the release

0 0 0 41 0

View Details

firstlevelthinker @firstlevelthin1

10 months ago

@bumUndiscoverd @heartof_thesea Clarifying the pareto/non-linear nature: propensity to spend inflects higher in the 2nd/3rd buckets (spend within cohort increases more than increase in min spend to be in cohort).

0 0 1 37 0

View Details

firstlevelthinker @firstlevelthin1

10 months ago

@bumUndiscoverd @heartof_thesea Your chart is not wrong. Think it implies a linear relationship though when sensitivity/propensity to spend curves; I’ll upload excel when in front of a computer.

1 0 0 30 0

View Details

firstlevelthinker @firstlevelthin1

10 months ago

@bumUndiscoverd @heartof_thesea Kind of. The pareto extends across different income/wealth cohorts as opposed to solely concentrating in the ultra wealthy - this is basically what broke people's assumptions on MC FP. Run math on the below re: contribution% to see.

1 0 1 45 0

View Details

firstlevelthinker @firstlevelthin1

10 months ago

@ConsensusGurus Think they need to address non-breakfast dayparts to lift comps materially. This needs to be done by new SKUs in drinks + food. Can check the daypart breakdown of BROS v SBUX, rev/sf across peers, daypart mix of peers, and consumer coffee consumption throughout a day to verify

1 0 0 55 0

View Details

firstlevelthinker @firstlevelthin1

11 months ago

@S_curvecap Agree. Data without context = gg. If you have enough slack in workflow (ie don’t need producing analyst right away), learn w/o help first esp when LLMs can help find key info in primary sources. Learning to establish frameworks and ask questions/follow up is key imo.

0 0 1 289 0

View Details

firstlevelthinker @firstlevelthin1

11 months ago

@PythiaR You want to be levered to EHS VOLUMES, not take an unintended bet with housing price. EHS up will be +tive sure bc avg mover spends disproportionately more on R&R but vast majority of R&R spend is non-movers and R&R in normal cycles has a very high correlation with housing price

0 0 2 243 0

View Details

firstlevelthinker @firstlevelthin1

a year ago

@Bonhoeffer_KDS @puppyeh1 This was not been the case for movies without a change in distribution (ie look at the number of movies made over time vs the market share of the large studios who took up theatre screens/marketing channels). Granted w/ NFLX this changed.

0 0 0 33 0

View Details

firstlevelthinker @firstlevelthin1

a year ago

@gnufs Reverse wealth effect beneficiary as consumers move away from paying 20-40% more through aggregators and move some delivery occasion back to pizza category. This trade at 30x if comps can go to 7%. Look at aggregator GOV for restis (remove fees) to get a sense of opportunity.

0 0 1 45 0

View Details

firstlevelthinker @firstlevelthin1

a year ago

@InnocenceCapit1 @CDMCapital Could own BYD in that case - algo less dependent on multiples (buybacks element). Both assume limited hike in unemployment to keep miles driven steady, and increase in car prices increase propensity for insurers to fix cars as opposed to scrapping.

0 0 0 31 0

View Details

firstlevelthinker @firstlevelthin1

a year ago

@bluff_capital Very low probability this gets anywhere remotely close to the ROI of DIS x Marvel.

0 0 0 32 0

View Details

firstlevelthinker @firstlevelthin1

2 years ago

@MattJRothschild @bucketshopcap Lessen this by formalizing the reasons behind the thesis on the analyst side. If o/p for wrong reason, PM was right (unless it was a probability x payoff bet). If o/p for right reason, PM was wrong. This assumes good communication/trust between analyst/PM.