MB @techbball

High conviction for 5/26 earnings: $SMTC $12.5B market cap. Here is the thesis: 1. The 1.6T and Trainium Volume Ramp: Semtech completely dominates the TIA space, meaning massive content per box growth as 1.6T scales literally right now. Throw in the colossal scale out Ethernet topologies AWS needs for Trainium. The sheer volume of optical connections required feeds directly into their bottom line. 2. The Vera Rubin 224G Catalyst: Inside the rack copper is still king. When you push 224G over standard copper wire, the signal completely dies after about two meters. It is a hard wall. If hyperscalers want to deploy Rubin without literally melting their power grids or dropping data packets, passive copper is entirely dead to them. They are structurally forced to buy Active Copper Cables or shift entirely to Linear Pluggable Optics. 3. The Agentic AI Inference Boom: Agentic AI is forcing a massive build out of inference clusters that are ridiculously sensitive to latency and power draw. Whether these racks run on GPUs or custom CPUs, they demand networking that is fast and highly efficient. By stripping out power hungry digital chips, Semtech becomes the ultimate hardware agnostic arms dealer for next gen networks. Semtech wins the edge. I also like the smart money here with Atreides increasing its stake. NFA.

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MB @techbball

2 months ago

@illyquid @MaximusCap_ @FundaAI @insane_analyst FundAI has been fantastic and early. I can only recall myself and QF Research posting on it earlier in Jan/Feb x.com/techbball/stat…

MB @techbball

5 months ago

$LITE beat today confirms the read-through on Silicon Photonics demand. ⚡️ $TSEM flying under the radar as the only scalable Western foundry for the AI interconnect ramp (via Intel NM). "Situational Awareness" supply chain hedge. 1-Year Chart: +170% (quietest multi-bagger in

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MB @techbball

2 months ago

@pennycheck Cut wyfi add bw

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MB @techbball

3 months ago

Double since this time

MB @techbball

5 months ago

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MB @techbball

3 months ago

Liking your approach and thesis on this. Had not looked at this name in some time. What about the other direction on bypassing the grid. Situational Awareness LP has had a lot of similar views to you with optics but plays the bottleneck for energy by bypassing the grid with $BE, $PSIX, $SEI and others.

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MB @techbball

3 months ago

@jbulltard1 Lol. How bout $skm… breaking out..

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MB @techbball

3 months ago

@AlmaCap114204 Agreed $skm is the best vehicle to have exposure imho

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MB @techbball

3 months ago

@qthomp Great call

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MB @techbball

4 months ago

@omshanti08 91 playbook, ground invasion, oil prices retreat … sideways chop, credit crunch…Trump Taj Mahal ( Black 🪨 Blue 🦉) Now you can get with this or you can get with that by October when fed intervenes 🚀

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MB @techbball

4 months ago

@qthomp @jam_croissant Highly unlikely. While an oil shock hurts Beijing, a Middle East war drains the exact US naval assets & precision munitions needed to deter China in the Pacific.

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MB @techbball

4 months ago

@jbulltard1 Saw that. Win some. Lose some.

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MB @techbball

5 months ago

@StockPatternPro 🐺

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MB @techbball

5 months ago

@ResearchQf Great Analysis. Should be a good read through for $TSEM next week.

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MB @techbball

5 months ago

@abcampbell Long Claude Code short $IGV. IGV basket isn’t perfect though. $CRWD and $ZM outliers. Ironic the value being derived from $ZM is due to Anthropic stake but because Zoom is a top 10 holding of $IGV it’s getting shorted due to Claude 😂

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MB @techbball

5 months ago

@StonkChris Ironic the value being derived is due to Anthropic stake but because Zoom is a top 10 holding of $IGV it’s getting shorted due to Claude 😂